Nothing Adds Up

Beyond Doubt

2009-10-29T06:42:00.000-04:00

For sometime now, I've been working on setting up a new blog. It's still under construction, but it's good enough to show my readers.

I can now start blogging there, and adding and tweaking things as I go. Therefore...

Please head over to http://doubtandbeyond.blogspot.com/.

Scroll down to the bottom of the page, and you'll see a small writeup on why I'm shifting there after almost five years of Nothing Adds Up, I'm moving.

You can leave comments either here, or on the new blog, and I look forward to reading them.

Procrastination Device #23984752947692743967243989823476982479826

2009-10-27T03:15:00.002-04:00

http://thereifixedit.com/

The poverty of Pakistani newspapers

2009-10-26T22:39:00.001-04:00

News and current affairs analysis has skyrocketed in Pakistan over the last decade with the advent of cable news channels, replacing the boring propaganda-fest that used to be 9pm news on PTV. However, TV reporting can't quite compete with the depth of reporting a newspaper can do.

In the course of working for my dissertation, I just scanned world circulation figures, and the figures in Pakistan. The standouts are Japan and India (India's figures are naturally high given just how large they are, but the Japanese figure is truly impressive). A caveat before I proceed: individual newspapers' circulation figures aren't indicative of how much a country's population reads papers. For that, we'd need total circulation of all papers divided by population. America, for example, has lower than expected circulation figures for its top papers, but this might only be because there are a large number of comparatively large papers based around metropolitan areas. (edit: it could also be because of the prevalence of the internet as a substitute news source)

Anyway, Pakistan has only one in the top 100: Jang at #72. An urdu-language paper, it's circulation was always going to be greater than the english papers, but as Pakistan's most widely read paper, it's circulation was actually very small, at 0.8 million readers. Compare that to the size of the population, over 160 million, and the fact that we don't have very popular regional papers, and the implication is devastating.

What about the others? I couldn't find circulation figures for Nawa-i-Waqt, which is almost certainly the second most circulated paper. Dawn and The News are neck and neck in terms of circulation at about 140,000. However, it is to be noted that Dawn is Pakistan's newspaper of record, and The News is wrongly, but tellingly labeled a tabloid on its Wikipedia page. I couldn't find figures for The Nation either, but it must be lower than the two leading papers. There are other noteworthy Pakistani papers: The Daily Times, Frontier Post and Business Recorder in English, and Khabrain in Urdu come to mind. However, none is large enough to detract from the larger point: newspaper readership in Pakistan is worryingly thin.

The causes and consequences of this are worth exploration at another time, but I can take a few guesses. Briefly, illiteracy (allegedly about 50.1%, probably greater) and a lack of disposable income probably make newspapers more of a luxury. The upshot of course is that it becomes easier to misinform the masses.

On a tangent, I just noticed that Pakistan is listed as a fairly equal society by the UN/CIA Gini coefficient rankings. I find this unintuitive and suspect its wrong, but can't investigate right now.

Okay, back to work.

The Supreme Court needs an Economics Lesson

2009-10-23T00:36:00.000-04:00

Dawn reports:

A Supreme Court judge, Justice Jawwad S. Khawaja, on Thursday expressed serious reservations over the report of the one-man commission appointed to determine the sugar industry's production cost and profit margin, branding it as non-starter.

‘We had appointed the commission to determine the cost of production and not to lecture us on economics,’ Justice Khawaja observed, saying the report had gone beyond its mandate.

The bench, comprising Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, Justice Khawaja and Justice Ghulam Rabbani, had taken up identical appeals of the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association and the Punjab Sugar Association against a verdict of the Lahore High Court requiring the sale of the sweetener at Rs40 per kilogram.

At the last hearing, Competition Commission of Pakistan chairman Khalid Mirza, in a report submitted to the Supreme Court in his capacity as head of the commission, had criticised fixing of price by the court, terming it a short-term measure which was bound to cause harm in the long term. Describing the issue as political, Justice Khawaja conceded that it was not the domain of the Supreme Court to fix sugar prices, but it had to intervene under compulsion.

It is not for judges to determine economic prices. No trained economist would have claimed to be able to calculate profit and cost margins, and it is heartening that the Competition Commission Chairman criticized this sort of price-fixing.

It is also ridiculous that Justice Khawaja resents getting lectured on economics. If you want expert testimony on a matter, you cannot protest when the expert says something you don't like.

If they're so concerned about the economy, they should tackle corruption, poverty alleviation and lawlessness

Something's wrong with the post below

2009-10-21T16:14:00.003-04:00

Just scroll down...

Edhi Honored

2009-10-21T16:11:00.003-04:00

Abdul Sattar Edhi has (jointly with Franois Houtart of Belgium) won the UNESCO-Madanjeet Singh Award for his contribution to non-violence.

Edhi is Pakistan's most famous philanthropist and success stories. Born in a poor family, he started his charity work with Rs. 5000, and has now famously built the largest private ambulance network in the world (which is a HUGE credit to him, and sad commentary on public services in Pakistan).

He also runs orphanages, clinics, burial services, education facilities, and God knows what else.

Here's more about the Edhi Foundation. And more.

Mention of the Foundation would be incomplete without recognition of the work of his wife, Bilqees, who is a great philanthropist in her own right.

Here's a San Francisco Chronicle article about how the couple saves 300 children a year, and the accompanying slideshow is worth seeing too:

Edhi represents the best side of Pakistan. My immediate reaction to Obama's Nobel Prize was wonder at how a he could be selected over a worker of the stature of Edhi. Unfortunately, Edhi is little-known outside Pakistan.

Why haven't we ever looked into the Atrocities of 1971?

2009-10-20T21:11:00.000-04:00

The curse, and beauty, of the internet is that one thing frequently leads to another. In this case, reading about Waziristan lead to other Pakistani wars, and then to the Independence of Bangladesh. The discussion in Pakistan focuses on Pakistan's mismanagement of that crisis, and India's uncalled-for aggression, but we seem to have amnesia when it comes to talking about the Hamood-ur-Rehman commission, and the alleged genocide by Pakistani troops (willfully covered up by the Americans because of the 'sensibilities' of the Cold War).

As my previous post suggests, I'm fairly fond of the army, certainly more so than many a Pakistani intellectual. However, unlike some Army supporters, I don't think it should escape scrutiny. For the Army uniform to be worth the sacrifices of the officers and jawaans giving up their lives in it, it needs to be cleansed of injustice.

The astonishing thing is, besides a little murmuring here and there, this has never been pursued by us citizens, nor by our alleged leaders, or by the army or judges or anyone else for that matter. There are tons of mysteries in Pakistan: Zia's death, the operation against Nawab Bugti, and the circumstances surrounding Benazir's death are up there. But this outstrips them all; this isn't about one or two deaths, but anywhere from Pakistan's lower figure of 25,000 to a high estimate of 3 million.

There's a real opportunity here for the Army, on two levels. At a deeper level, accountability of the past will build confidence amongst the provinces, and disincentivize rogue troops or commanders from repeating such atrocities. On a more cynical and deeply vulgar level this could, if handled carefully, get the critics off their backs. I'm disappointed they're not doing it for the former reason, and puzzled why they don't do it for the latter.

Remembering our Martyrs; Praying for our Fighters

2009-10-20T20:17:00.000-04:00

Pakistan has lost 3000 troops in our war against the Taliban, which is 3 times American casualties in Afghanistan.

This figure is roughly the same as the 1965 war, twice the number from the 1947 war and almost three times the number we've lost in the Siachen Glacier since 1984. There aren't good estimates of casualties in the Kargil war, but its probably comparable. We only lost significantly more troops in the 1971 war. All of these conflicts, of course, were against India.

Anyway, with our Army now heading into the most famously treacherous hurdle of the war, Waziristan, where we've previously defeated more than once, my prayers and thoughts are with the soldiers fighting, and with those that fought and were martyred.

Here are a couple of video tributes:

What's happening in Balochistan?

2009-10-19T19:38:00.000-04:00

Balochistan is a huge mystery:

Who's carrying out the target killing of Shias?
Are elements of the Taliban previously supported by Pakistan hidden away there waiting for the Americans to pull out?
What countries have carried out anti-state activities there?
How badly has the center ruled the province? How legitimate are the Baloch rebels' demands? What does popular sentiment lean towards?

I recently read this article purportedly talking about historical intervention in Balochistan by foreign spy agencies, and this article purportedly telling the rebel side of the story.

I don't know what to believe about the subject, and if you have sources I can read up, please pass them on.

Dawn's 'An Enemy Imagined?'

2009-10-19T02:13:00.001-04:00

This is the first part of a documentary assessing the threat posed to Pakistan by India, by the foremost newspaper/TV group in Pakistan. They talk to a number of Pakistani thinkers on the subject.

It's worth watching for Pakistanis, its worth watching for Indians, its worth watching for anyone with an interest in South Asia.

(double-click on the video to go to the YouTube site, and watch the other parts there. YouTube has been having problems, so if it doesn't work, try again at a later time)

Do you text/play with your iPhone while driving?

2009-10-17T14:18:00.000-04:00

Don't!

Multiple Attacks

2009-10-15T10:24:00.000-04:00

The Taliban have attacked three police stations in Lahore, and bombed Kohat and Peshawar. This, merely days after the attacks in Rawalpindi, and the earlier attack in Peshawar.

In related news, I've just been reading a think-tank report describing the array of government and taliban forces expected to clash soon in Waziristan. The predictions are grim at best.

The key to all this must be cooling tensions with India. Pakistan simply has too many enemies at this point, and we're simply never going to get anything out of fighting a country 6-10 times our size (depending on what you count).

My complaint to the NYT

2009-10-11T23:32:00.003-04:00

Blogging is on break, but I just send a complaint to the New York Time's Public Editor regarding coverage of the GHQ attacks in Pakistan, and thought my readers would like to take a look:

Dear Mr. Hoyt,

I'm writing to complain about the headline to Ms. Jane Perlez's October 10th, 2009 piece about the Taliban attacks on the Pakistani Army's General Headquarters. The article (accessed here: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/world/asia/11pstan.html?scp=2&sq=&st=nyt on 10/11/09 at 11:05pm) describes the end to the suicidal military-style attacks on the Pakistan Army's GHQ in Rawalpindi, which was followed by the militants holing up in one building of the complex. The title to the piece was: "Pakistan Retakes Army Headquarters; Hostages Freed".

The correct statement would be "Pakistan Retakes Building in Army Headquarters; Hostages Freed". It's a subtle difference that won't bother those in the know, but for someone not following the news in Pakistan, the headline used sounds like the Army had lost complete control of its headquarters. The analogy that comes to mind would be a 9/12/01 article stating: "Pentagon destroyed in attacks" to describe the attacks in Washington on that fateful day.

There has been a consistent overstatement of the threat posed by the Taliban to the Pakistani hinterland in the media. During the Taliban's takeover of Swat last year, a lot of pundits and government officials alike pointed to the Taliban being only 100 kilometers from Islamabad, the capital city. While this was true, Islamabad's security was not regarded by most experts to be under threat, because to take it over the Taliban would need to fight a conventional war on level terrain with the world's sixth largest army. Yet the nature of the threat was assessed in international media as being far greater than what the Pakistani media, following the developments more closely, rated it to be.

The New York Times is a key newspaper of record not only for Americans, but for Pakistan-watchers around the globe. I urge theNYT to be doubly meticulous with its headlines on Pakistan in these sensitive times.

Yours Respectfully,

Syed Ali Hasanain

Addendum: As usual, Watandost does an excellent job summarizing the implications of the attack. Hassan Abbas is fast becoming my go-to Pakistan-watcher.

Addendum II: I just read Steve Coll's testimony (link to PDF) to the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Oct 1st discussing why the US should be interested in Pakistan's long-term growth and development. It's up to his usual high standards.

Blogging suspended as of now

2009-10-05T22:24:00.000-04:00

I have roughly one month to write roughly half a dissertation.

Time to go berserk, and stop blogging, socializing, surfing the web, cooking, cleaning, helping people with chores, and gasp making less international calls. The only thing I'll try to fit in is a tiny bit of exercise, and that too merely for sanity's sake.

See you on the other side, hopefully.

Gridlock Economy Conference

2009-10-02T16:29:00.000-04:00

I attended a conference at the GMU law school about Michael Heller's book The Gridlock Economy. I taught Heller's ideas about the "Tragedies of the Anti-Commons" to both semesters of my law and economics class, so attending a conference and seeing the researcher himself talk about his ideas was something I was looking forward to, and Heller didn't disappoint. Very articulate, and interesting ideas.

Richard Epstein was there, and Nathan put it best: "Epstein talks in paragraphs". Amazingly articulate, and seamless flow of coherent ideas. I was wondering if I'll ever be able to speak on any topic in that manner.

And then Harold Demsetz was there. Demsetz is one of the biggest names in Law and Economics (so is Epstein actually), and right up there with Ronald Coase in terms of writing some of the critical papers that got Law and Economics on its feet. It was an honor to hear him speak, and to meet him afterwards. I've had almost a perverse disinclination to getting pictures taken with academics (I never posed with Vernon, Buchannan, Tullock, North, Greif, Munger, or any of the others I had the chance to pose with). I think it misses the point: I should be reading their work or writing responses, not standing and posing with them. But for once, it was too tempting: Brian was getting a picture taken, and I had to join him. Still waiting for the picture from Brian...

Acura builds an ALMS racecar in 22 hours

2009-10-02T16:01:00.000-04:00

They lost a car to a very bad crash and had to rebuild from the ground up within a day. Here's a time-lapse video:

ALMS: Patron Highcroft Petit Le Mans Rebuild from GrandTouringPrototype.com on Vimeo.

(HT: Jalopnik)

Still wondering about a new title

2009-09-28T09:20:00.001-04:00

I know a lot of you like 'Nothing Adds Up' (the title, not the blog). I love it myself, but it most certainly is time for change, so please, those suggestions already!

Finding a good title is harder now than it was back in 2005. All the good ones (and most of the bad ones) are already taken.

I miss...

2009-09-28T09:10:00.000-04:00

Hanging out with proxy parents;
Trying and failing miserably to take pictures of hummingbirds;
Parathas, haleem, halwa, palak, ras malai et. al.;
Sneaking upstairs in the middle of the night to empty the freezer of ice cream;
Taking long walks and downloading Payjee Mamoo's wisdom;
Repotting plants (okay, this one not so much ;) );
Driving all day and all night, and still not reaching my destination;
Praying in the middle of the night at a rest area in Ohio where I feel distinctly unwelcome as a Muslim;
Seeing a guy who died 5000 years ago;
Hearing a dinosaur... moo;
Discovering that storks and condors pee on their own legs to cool down (it is their version of sweating or panting, this by the way is something I haven't tried in a few years. Gotta give it a shot next summer =P);
Coming to appreciate Monet and Japanese Screens;
Seeing Manet's Beggar with Oysters in real life;
Looking down from the top of the John Hancock center at night (pretty lights on one side, the powerful blankness of Lake Michigan on the other);
Seeing a Murcielago, an Elise, and a Phateon on the road;
Feeling at home.

(I just realized it's been more than a month since my trip to Chicago, and I never blogged about it. It was a great trip, and I returned rested and recharged to get back to work. It's such a blessing having family on quite literally the other end of the world. It's also a reminder of how badly I miss home, and how important it is for me to finish up quickly and return to Pakistan.)

Is certainty really that ridiculous?

2009-09-25T08:04:00.002-04:00

My archives tell me that I began this blog on January 15th, 2005.

From that first day, I've kept the name Nothing Adds Up for it, and the Voltaire quote: "Doubt is uncomfortable, certainty is ridiculous." as its (and my) motto.

These reflected my lack of certainty on a host of topics, and it seemed to make more sense to be non-committal about everything than to actually take the time to investigate and clarify my stances on a number of things. It's a stance that has been very dear to me, and seemed in keeping with a student's instinct of questioning.

However, over time I've come to realize that questioning is merely the start of the journey. If I make the effort to seek answers, doubt can disperse. This isn't to suggest replacing doubt with dogma, and one should always be open to new evidence and arguments. Just as it is ridiculous to be certain without investigation however, it is equally ridiculous to remain doubtful in the face of evidence.

I don't know if it is possible to be absolutely certain about anything, but we must, and do accept thresholds beyond which we act without doubt. In western law, this is articulated as the Standard of Proof: we may not be absolutely certain someone committed a crime, but we can be certain enough to punish them, and even award them a sentence of death. Similarly, we may not have absolute certainty about the laws of mechanics, but we can be certain enough to construct machines, like planes and ships and cranes, the failure of which would kill millions.

We can reach certainty. This should be our goal. It is not inconsistent with the scientific method.

Therefore, and with a heavy heart given my attachment to N.A.U., I've decided to write under a different title. I'm planning on switching in a week, or whenever I like a title enough, whichever comes first.

I'm open to suggestions about a new title, so please leave me some in the comment section.

On having a Pakistani Passport

2009-09-24T05:11:00.003-04:00

A quick look at the trials and tribulations Pakistanis have to face to get a visa to a Western country.

I've only dealt with this problem once: when I applied for my F-1 student visa for the US. That went reasonably well: the four tiers of security checks seemed excessive, but defensible given the security situation (still, four gatechecks? Four!) The US embassy only lost my passport once, and the security check only took three odd months. I was late getting here, but at least I got here.

Worse still, in fact, is the arrogance Western officials have towards Pakistanis. Traveling from Pakistan, from the minute you arrive in England for a quick transit stop, to the three different counters they put you through at American Immigration (all asking pretty much the same questions), more desk clerks and immigration officers than not have this disdainful, snobbish and sometimes downright rude attitude towards travelers that I've never experienced elsewhere in America.

Worst still, are things with Britain these days. Why are visas for Pakistanis being processed in Abu Dhabi? A bit over the top if you ask me. This follows on the heels of the deportation without evidence of a group of Pakistani students in the UK, on suspicion of terrorist activities. Not only was there never any evidence of this, it has been roundly denied and condemned in Pakistani circles.

Personally, I like my passport fine, but others have not been as lucky.

Parkour!!!

2009-09-23T21:35:00.002-04:00

(HT: Sara)

Man!!! I miss doing this sooo much.

Hotel Bashir-wala

2009-09-17T07:15:00.001-04:00

Hilarious, biting, adaptation of Hotel California in Urdu:

(HT: Akhlaq)

Remembering the Quaid

2009-09-16T08:30:00.002-04:00

Dawn, Pakistan's best newspaper, remembers our Founder:

Thought of the Day - Information Super Highway meets that incomplete recollection in your head

2009-09-16T07:17:00.005-04:00

Growing up, I remember the feeling of being able to recall information partially, and feeling frustrated about not being able to quote the full example.

The internet means we no longer have to accept the failure to recall.

I was just writing an essay and wanted to mention a mystery. Immediately, I was reminded of the mysterious lines I read about as a kid that are visible as art from the air, but not discernible as such from the ground.

What were they called?
Where are they?
Europe? Australia? South America?
My guess was somewhere in the Scandinavian states.
When did they exist?
Damn it, what were they called?

A few false starts on Google ("Wonders of the World", "UNESCO Heritage Sites in Europe") later, I typed in "Mysterious Structures" and the first website that came up listed the "Nasca (sic) lines". That looked promising, so I googled that and sure enough, I found exactly what I was looking for:

Now, thanks to Google Images, I have the picture above; thanks to Google itself, I can point you to this excellent Tour Operator Site, and thanks to Wikipedia, I can tell you just about everything else.

Between Google, Wikipedia, and the sea of organizations, enthusiasts, etc. out there, recalling anything is barely a few keystrokes away. The world has profoundly changed.

Final point: I wonder if the internet doesn't condition us to stick to things we know? There are some great sites out there that can be very educative (Wikipedia's Main Page comes to mind), but I wonder how often people learn truly new stuff online. To me the internet is still predominantly the Information SuperHighway, and has a way to go before it can be called the Knowledge SuperHighway. What's your experience been like?

Tragedy, and Astonishing Facts, of the day.

2009-09-15T00:13:00.006-04:00

I just read what has got to be the most tragic news out of Pakistan in a while:

20 women and girls were trampled to death in a stampede in Karachi, when a charity worker handing out free food items stopped the supply temporarily, and the women started rushing to get the last supplies.

Not only is this a profound tragedy in its own right, it is indicative of the depth of poverty in Pakistan today. It is widely thought that poverty has increased in the last two decades, even as corruption and spending on ostentatious projects has gone up.

A cursory wikipedia search throws up these two astonishing figures:

Almost 3 in every 4 Pakistanis lives on less than $2 a day, and 17% live under $1 a day.

Pakistan is home to one in every 3 poor people IN THE WORLD. NOT

Update: Serves me right for cursory wikipedia searches. This second claim is almost certainly untrue by any measure.

There still are some 122 Million poor Pakistanis, but that's not a third of the world's poor. Unfortunately, there are more than a Billion people under the poverty line.

Is libel worse or systematic organ theft?

2009-09-12T06:41:00.005-04:00

The New York Times ran a story last month about how Israel was in a diplomatic row with Sweden because Sweden refused to condemn a Swedish tabloid's story.

This story recounted Palestinian allegations that Israeli soldiers had been taking away Palestinian bodies after they were killed, and returning them days later with organs missing. It talked about the case of a boy killed in 1992, but the author claimed to have other similar stories.

A separate story states that there was, at the time, an organ theft racket at the only Israeli hospital conducting autopsies. This racket was later shut down, but the perpetrators only claimed to have stolen from Israeli soliders' bodies. And they were allegedly helped by Israeli soldiers.

The ridiculous thing is that most western news organizations have focused on the Israeli-Swedish diplomatic row, without following up on the allegations themselves.

The Israelis are crying anti-Semiticism again, and focusing on how the generalizations by the writer are akin to blood libel.

It may very well be that the Israelis are right. But correct me if I'm mistaken, but shouldn't it be more about questioning what Israel is doing to check those massively serious allegations and less about whether the writer should have written more carefully?

This is a complete and utter outrage. Why do westerners turn such a blind eye to Israel?

On a tangent, it is good to see European media freedom being put to good use for a change.

Hahaha

2009-09-10T07:36:00.002-04:00

Okay, Muslims, prepare to see the funniest thing in ages!

Take a few breaths, make sure you're in a place it's okay to dissolve into a puddle of giggles, then click here.

Inspiration of the Day

2009-09-08T04:50:00.004-04:00

Felipe Massa, who had a horrible accident while racing his Ferrari a while back (a spring dropped off another car at speed, bounced on the track and Massa drove into it at a gazillion miles an hour, it left a big dent in his helmet, and these things are supposed to be impenetrable), is a pocket-sized lion, and an inspiration.

He was magnificent and gracious after losing the Championship last year at the final corner, and he's shown how brave and mature he is now.
Here's the latest interview:

The Ferrari driver was left in a coma in July when a flying spring smashed into his head during practice for the Hungarian Grand Prix.
Massa, talking to the Guardian, admits his injuries could have been much worse.
"You need to think about luck in different ways. I was actually very unlucky with the spring in my face. But I was very lucky as well. Every doctor said the same.
"If the spring had gone one millimetre to the right I would have lost my sight. One millimetre to the left and who knows? I could have been brain damaged. So I was very lucky. And this is more important because it is my life."
Massa says what happened at the Hungaroring hasn't dimmed his passion for the sport, or given him any doubts about wanting to get back behind the wheel.
He said: "For me, the worst thing that happened was not being able to race. If you can't drive that's terrible.

Hurry back Felipe!!!

There are two types of geniuses in this world...

2009-09-05T05:15:00.003-04:00

Dan Pink, who gave an entertaining lecture on Motivation at TED recently, has an older article in Wired discussing an economist's description of two types of geniuses: those who are paradigm-shifting and do their significant work very early on, and those who are experimentalists and take decades learning and refining their thoughts.

When I was at LUMS, I was fascinated by (and to be honest, secretly wanted to emulate) the successes of John Nash and Ronald Coase, among others, who did Nobel-Prize worthy work as 20-something year olds. I used to think that to be a genius, you had to quickly perceive flaws in existing work and write something earth-shattering ASAP. This is the usual conception of genius. It's the more glamorous type too: A Beautiful Mind and Good Will Hunting worked because they appealed to the romantic within us who wanted to believe that these young men were diamonds in the rough, whose minds were bursting with ideas or waiting to be tapped. There's no doubt of course that some people are like that, and we should be on the lookout for them.

However, two professors I've had the privilege of working with, Ali Cheema and Vernon Smith, both were examples of another sort of genius. These people have grafted away at their respective work for years and decades, and developed their work in increments. And because these examples aren't predicated on being endowed with exceptional IQs (although, let's not kid ourselves, they're two of the smartest people you'll ever meet), they're more of a role model. They hold out the promise that if you too work as hard as possible, the sky is still the limit even if you've missed the 30 year mark without wowing the world.

The only preconditions are hard work and a long-term vision.

I'll let Pink have the final words:

(This notion of creativity is) "no justification for laziness or procrastination or indifference. But it might bolster the resolve of the relentlessly curious, the constantly tinkering, the dedicated tortoises undaunted by the blur of the hares."

Doing a Fresh Install tonight...

2009-09-03T00:59:00.004-04:00

Brian thinks my problems with Snow Leopard might go away if I do a fresh install. What have I got to lose? See you on the other side!

Update 1: Done. That was simple enough. Now to see if it changes anything...

Update 2: This is getting ridiculous. Expose is refusing to work...

Update 3: A reboot fixed Expose, and there have been no other issues to report. Here's hoping it stays that way. This thing will have to be both bullet-proof and significantly faster than Leopard from here on in for Apple to retain my (laptop) business in the future. The iPhone, of course, is another story.

In related news, I've just installed SpaceSuit, which is third-party software finally fixing a long-term complaint I've had with Spaces, that different Spaces don't have different wallpapers. It's not perfect: SpaceSuit works by putting an image over your desktop, so any desktop files can't be accessed. It also doesn't have support for multiple monitors yet (all of your screens will display the same image). Finally, it doesn't fix something that I imagine only Apple can fix: displaying a small image of your wallpaper (perhaps tinted in blue so as not to distract from your windows) rather than plain blue when you switch between spaces. Still, can't have everything, and something is better than nothing I guess.

Apple, I'm not impressed

2009-09-02T05:26:00.004-04:00

Snow Leopard

=

Leopard

-

$30

+

+

repeated Firefox and Word crashes

What I'd invest in...

2009-09-02T04:56:00.003-04:00

First of all, I have no training in Investment&Finance, so read on with a pinch of salt and at your own peril. This isn't advice, just me thinking out loud:

If I had money to invest today, I'd invest a lot in Hyundai. Some of what I have left over, I'd invest in Ford. Then I'd stop thinking about that investment for at least 5 years.

I have no idea what the stocks look like, or what their history is. Naturally I'd take a closer look before putting my imaginary money where my keyboard is.

I'd do it based solely on how their product lines are developing.

Ford has had terrible problems, but it is finally bringing small European Fords to America, and those are class leaders despite facing much tougher competition in European markets. Moreover, newer Ford designs, like the Flex and Taurus, have gotten very strong reviews.

The one thing that might stop me from making that investment, however, is Ford's forced sale last year of much of the 33.8% of Mazda it had owned since 1997. This can have huge implications in the future, since Mazda has collaborated on many Ford products in the past, and has had a very important role in their R&D. Actually, Mazda itself might not be a bad buy...

Hyundai, meanwhile, has already captured the public's imagination. From famously being the favorite topic of late-night comedians, to producing the universally feted Genesis and Genesis Coupe, Hyundai's rise has been as steady as it has been meteoric. I'd imagine that anyone who bought Hyundai stock in 2001 is sitting very pretty today. However, there might be a small gain still to be made when they launch the very very (yes, I think it really does warrant two verys) promising next-generation Sonata, which to my eyes looks like a Korean Mercedes CLS and the Equus top-end luxury sedan (not to mention a couple of very nice Kias, like the VG) over the next year or two. It can only help if the surprising Kia Forte (which looks at first glance like a Civic-copy, and then you catch sight of the original detailing) catches on...

What's that? The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests none of this matters, you say? Eh, whatever...

Not happy so far...

2009-09-01T13:04:00.001-04:00

Snow Leopard just crashed Word and Firefox thrice in seven minutes.
Overall, it also feels slower, not faster to me...

Snow Leopard impressions right out of the box

2009-09-01T02:06:00.006-04:00

So far, as expected, I don't think it was worth the money:

First things first, the installation process wasn't as smooth as expected. It started installing, but immediately hung up. I had "51 minutes remaining" showing on my screen for at least half an hour. Then, when I closed the lid, and reopened it, it suddenly sprung into action. I didn't time it, but I think it still took about 45 minutes after that, for a total installation time of about 1:15. I haven't installed any other OS recently, so I don't know whether that is good or bad.

One good thing about Apple installations is that you don't have to go hunting all over the place for drivers etc. Pop in the CD and you're good to go. It's much nicer to install than XP, for sure, but that's not a fair comparison given how old XP is. I hear Windows 7 is going to be as easy to install as Snow Leopard. That's be an incredible achievement given how many different types of machines Windows is designed to run on. We'll find out soon enough...
I briefly tried replicating the problems Brian had at the Apple store with iPhoto. Only checked it on one picture for both Leopard and Snow Leopard, and there was no palpable difference. I hope it was just a store unit issue.
Expose is buggy:
- The four-finger swipe problem I reported below is as irritating as expected. Upgrades aren't supposed to downgrade the experience.
- If you move windows around in Spaces while in Expose, the labels that appear underneath sometimes disappear. Then you have to move out of Spaces, re-enter it, and swipe down again. Irritating as hell...
- Seems as fast as before though.
Haven't tried Quicktime, or whether Time Machine still works seamlessly.
I didn't check how much space I had before I installed it, so I don't know how much space I saved. This isn't a big issue for me though: I don't have a large media library, and hard disks are so cheap these days I can always buy another external hard drive or upgrade the internal drive if I ever want to.
Overall, there isn't much difference in the user experience. Did I just subsidize Apple's move to new technology?
Wallpapers are nice though...

Glitches in Snow Leopard

2009-08-29T04:10:00.002-04:00

PC World has the roundup here. Here's the biggest one: a four-finger swipe (which I and probably most users use primarily to show desktop or use Expose) doesn't work properly unless you lift your fingers after the action. That might not seem like a big issue, but having to lift your hand and then bring it down makes things that much less smooth.

The other big glitch? My copy wasn't delivered today because the FedEx guy came in the one hour slot no one was home. Hopefully Monday...

Under pressure to finish

2009-08-25T01:10:00.001-04:00

(Original image here)

Dua for the 3rd of Ramazan

2009-08-24T22:48:00.001-04:00

O Allah, on this day,
grant me wisdom and awareness,
keep me away from foolishness and pretension,
grant me a share in every blessing You send down,
by Your generosity, O the most Generous.

Scenes from Pakistan and Afghanistan

2009-08-24T04:53:00.002-04:00

Here's a collection of photos taken by an AP photojournalist injured recently in Afghanistan.

Emilio Morenatti is Photographer of the year, 2009. Follow the link for some excellent pictures.

(HT: Faisal)

Ford does a segment-buster

2009-08-24T01:22:00.002-04:00

This is the first pickup truck I've ever wanted:

It's a Ford F-150 pickup truck, that's been modified to be something of a Rallycross vehicle. All for an additional $2500.

Here's Edmunds, and here's Jalopnik on this beauty.

Well done, Ford!

Dua for the 2nd of Ramazan

2009-08-23T21:52:00.001-04:00

O Allah, on this day,
take me closer towards Your pleasure,
keep me away from Your anger and punishment,
grant me the opportunity to recite Your verses,
by Your mercy, O the most Merciful.

Model Bloat

2009-08-23T18:32:00.003-04:00

Cars these days are getting bigger, longer, wider, heavier and taller. This trend is bad for performance and the environment, but (arguably) good for comfort, safety, and visibility.

The contrast is especially vivid for me whenever I step from my 1999 Honda into a more modern car. Visibility is much poorer these days, and although it is nice knowing there are 10 airbags instead of two, and that crumple zones are better, I'm also more afraid of crashing for two reasons. First, because of the aforementioned visibility. Second, because these newer cars are usually so well insulated from outside noise and road imperfections, they cocoon the passenger much more, and I've often felt the effect soporific.

Colin Chapman, the founder of Lotus, used to emphasize the reduction of weight over increasing power. His theories, while alive and well at Lotus (which on such a roll these days *drool*), has been increasingly forgotten in today's car industry.

I saw yesterday two cars that put this trend in stark relief for me: the first, a new entry-level Audi, and the second, a mid-of-the-range BMW. This Audi competes with the BMW one rung below the size ladder...

The current (B8) Audi A4 is one of those cars that explains Audi's meteoric rise among the luxury brands. However, I saw one parked next to a previous generation (E39) BMW 5-series yesterday, and the similarity in size was astonishing.

Here are the Audi's dimensions:

Length: 4,703 mm
Width: 1,826 mm
Height: 1,427mm
Kerb weight: 1,655kg
Turning circle: 11.4 metres
Fuel tank capacity: 65 litres

And here are the BMW's:

Length: 4,315 mm
Width: 1,800 mm
Height: 1,432mm
Kerb weight: 1720kg
Turning circle: 11.3 metres
Fuel tank capacity: 70 litres

Some manufacturers do talk about reversing the trend. Mazda and Ferrari both talk of a commitment to reduce car size and weight. Here's hoping.

Ramazan Mubarik Everyone

2009-08-22T15:33:00.002-04:00

Here's a supplication for the first day of the holy month:

O Allah, on this day
make my fasts the fasts of those who fast (sincerely)
and my standing up in prayer of those who stand up in prayer (obediently)

awaken me in it from the sleep of the heedless,
and forgive me my sins, O God of the worlds,
and forgive me, O one who forgives the sinners.

As much as possible, I'll try to put up the supplications for each day InshAllah

4 years in the US

2009-08-21T00:23:00.001-04:00

I've now been in America for four years. It's been tough, but interesting. Hope I can finish up soon and leave...

On break...

2009-08-05T23:41:00.003-04:00

I'm feeling really burnt out, so it's time (after more than a year) to take a proper break again.

I'm off to Chicago sometime tomorrow. Planning a couple of stops, so I should get there either very later tomorrow or relatively early the day after.

A rare view on Bangle

2009-08-05T23:37:00.002-04:00

Here. This tallies with my opinion on Chris Bangle and BMW car design perfectly.

All about Primal Fitness

2009-07-26T12:42:00.002-04:00

For the last four months or so, I've been frequenting a gym in D.C. to practice parkour. I'm completely hooked and am constantly preaching its virtues to all and sundry. Instead of repeating myself to each and everyone of you, I'm going to just do a writeup below the jump.

Hopefully I'll see you at Primal soon!

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Background
I first heard of Parkour on Top Gear back in 2006. At the time, it seemed like a distant, exotic discipline I would never be able to access:

Fast-forward three years and the usual running-on-a-treadmill routine at the university gym was getting tedious. I was also hoping (with Dad's encouragement) to experience some new activities before the end of my PhD, and probable move back to Pakistan.

Then, Jason told me about this new gym in D.C. he had started frequenting, called Primal Fitness. With substantial encouragement, I decided to try it out.

To begin, I enrolled in the beginner Parkour class. Not knowing quite what to expect, I showed up and was surprised to see that the gym was housed in an old firehouse. No wall-to-wall mirrors, no treadmills, no bench press machines, no air-conditioning, no wipe-downs after every little workout, no front desk. You walked straight through into a small, dark room in the back, threw your bag on the old sofa in the corner, signed a lengthy liability release form, and after brief introductions, were sent out to run a round of the block and do some pushups to warm up.

The first 20 minutes or so were intense enough to make you worry about being strong enough, but the wonderful thing was that neither instructors, not peers were ever anything but encouraging. Exercises were scaled up or down to your fitness level, and the class got through its exercises as a group.

To cut a long story short, I was completely hooked. The instructors were great, the activities interesting, and the conditioning challenging. I'll let the videos and articles do the talking:

Washington Post editorial review

Longer Post article about Parkour and Primal, with accompanying video

Here's another excellent review by D.C. Compass

And finally, our lead instructor, Travis, has a video here.

Having completed 3 months of basic training, I'm now attending the regular classes and am love every single class I've taken. Alongside the Parkour, I'm also taking the CrossFit classes and love those too. Here's a montage that covers a bit of both Parkour and CrossFit:

Really enjoying working on the olympic lifts, snatch and clean & jerk, but that's a story for another day.

Poetry and Language

2009-07-19T20:49:00.003-04:00

Here's a very nice recitation by an Urdu poet, who also happens to be Chinese. There is a group of Chinese scholars who are fluent in the intricacies of Urdu to an extent most Pakistanis aren't. Hearing them is always inspiring.

I wonder how many Pakistanis can speak Chinese well...

My first love!

2009-06-27T00:14:00.003-04:00

Before the HMGB1RD, before Pagani, BMW, Honda and even Ferrari, there was Tomy Turnin' Turbo Dashbard (and my toy Lancer, but that's another story)

I used to LOVE this thing! Anyone else been fortunate enough to 'drive' one?

Thanks for the memories Jalopnik!

Pakistan: World Champions!!!

2009-06-22T12:55:00.002-04:00

The moment of the tournament for me was that over by the South African all-rounder Jacques Kallis where Shahid "Boom Boom" Afridi was in trouble early on, and Kallis sledged at him. What a reply by Afridi!

Full over...

followed by the obligatory music video + hilarious press conference...

The obligatory celebratory music videos in English...

...and Urdu...

...followed by reactions from different cities at home after the final with Sri Lanka:

The cricketing world was unanimous in recognizing that the crown this year went to the country that needed it the most, what with the tragedies on and off the field in Pakistan over the last couple of years. This win has refreshed and galvanized an entire nation hitherto parched of any positive news. Wonderful!

Here's a small note I wrote in honor of the team:

This is Pakistan

The ability of sport to transcend the recent run of events and to energize and uplift a people was vividly unfurled today as Pakistan won the 2009 Twenty20 World Cup and triggered celebrations across the nation.

This win is all the sweeter since the young men who won it for Pakistan didn’t just represent urban Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad, but every corner and every street, every city and every village of the country.

The captain, Younis Khan, hails from Mardan; the leading batsman, Shahid Afridi, from the Khyber Agency; and the leading bowler, Umar Gul, from Peshawar. The North West Frontier Province was well represented by sons from its second-largest city, its tribal regions, and capital respectively.

Yet by no means was this an NWFP team. Two of the freshest faces in Pakistan cricket, Shahzaib Hasan and Fawad Alam, hail from Karachi, home of many an illustrious Pakistani cricketer. Sindh too, has an important role in this Pakistani story, as it always has had in the past.

In Salman Butt, Kamran Akmal, Abdul Razzaq and Ahmed Shehzad, Punjab has four players from Lahore, its capital, while Saeed Ajmal from Faisalabad and Sohail Tanvir from Rawalpindi hail from its second and third largest cities respectively. But the Punjab is also represented by players from smaller towns and districts: Iftikhar Anjum from Khanewal, Mohammad Aamer from Gujjar Khan, Shoaib Malik from Sialkot and Misbah-ul-Haq from Mianwali.

There is currently no Baloch player on the team, but this probably has more to do with the Baloch preference for hockey than their smaller numbers.

It is worth celebrating the diverse, and often humble origins of our cricketers for two reasons: first, because a successful bowler from Gujjar Khan or a leading allrounder from Mianwali helps reinforce the necessary belief that hard work is rewarded across the breadth and length of our country, but more importantly because at the end of the day, on the ground and in life, we are all Pakistanis, united under one flag.

We have witnessed today how strong a unified Pakistan can be. Let’s stay united and stay strong!

Onion Exclusive: Apple's latest product

2009-05-29T19:25:00.001-04:00

Sentence(s) of the day

2009-05-27T14:56:00.002-04:00

"A good job requires a field of action where you can put your best capacities to work and see an effect in the world. Academic credentials do not guarantee this."

From the excellent NYT article "The case for working with your hands", which laments the lack of physicality and the ability to directly observe the results of our effort in the modern workplace.

Give $5 to Pakistani refugees

2009-05-20T00:43:00.003-04:00

Pakistan currently has an estimated 2 million refugees and counting (thought to the be the largest displacement of human beings since Rwanda in the 1990s), displaced from the Swat valley where the Army is now fighting a pitched battle with Pakistani Taliban.

My dad just returned from the region after helping organize some relief activity, and confirmed both the challenges and the positive response from Pakistani civil society.

Hillary Clinton just announced a new program whereby people residing in America can make a contribution to relief agencies working in the region.
“Now, Americans can use technology to help, as well. Using your cell phones, Americans can text the word “swat” — to the number 20222 and make a $5 contribution that will help the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees provide tents, clothing, food, and medicine to hundreds of thousands of affected people,” Clinton said Tuesday in the White House briefing room.

Update: I just tried the system, and it works fine. Please spread the word, and please donate generously!

Tokyo Mater

2009-05-15T09:52:00.000-04:00

I love Cars!

Spending and Externalities

2009-04-16T15:17:00.002-04:00

A friend recently forwarded this video, that purports to explain how the economic system works:

This video is framed as a bit of a conspiracy theory, which is unfortunate because doing so undermines two important points they're trying to make:

The problem of externalities: With the exception of a few regulatory organizations in the most developed countries (EPA, NCAP etc), externalities of any sort, environmental, social, congestion, or safety-related, are not taken into account. (Econ Note: Obviously this is by definition). One of the biggest drawbacks to welfare calculations in economics is precisely the problem of externalities, the presence of which makes definitive statements about efficiency almost impossible: if we know that there are large-scale externalities being produced in a process, how do we tell if the process is worth doing or not?

Consumption: I find it at best hilarious, and at worst really disturbing that a lot of the focus post-slump is on increasing credit so people start buying again. I don't understand why a nation's health is being measured by how many new cars people bought last month, even while most cars on the road are working perfectly fine. I find especially silly the German government's new plan that gives credit to consumers to buy new cars (which has been marketed as a green initiative although environmental experts have dismissed such arguments). I understand that consumption increases employment, but I find it puzzling that economists haven't developed a more holistic, longer-term measure of the economy's health.

Anyway, just a little Thursday afternoon rambling...

Nice Move!

2009-04-15T17:25:00.003-04:00

Audi put up this sign near a BMW dealership in Santa Monica.

How do you think Santa Monica BMW responded?

See the full post below...

Has Pakistan restored Justice, or merely a judge?

2009-03-16T19:29:00.006-04:00

An exception to my blogging break to record my thoughts on the news that the Chief Justice of Pakistan is finally being restored.

Maybe I'm too much of a cynic these days, but I'm not sure this news is good at all.

The reason the lawyers' movement captivated the attention of a hitherto apolitical populace, I think, was that we saw the firing of the judges as naked aggression against Justice.

However, the present news that Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry is to be reinstated soon has left me feeling unsatiated and dissatisfied. Here's why:

To the victor belong the spoils
Consider first the timing: the announcement of the CJs reinstatement comes some 17 months after he was last suspended. The lawyer's movement has been tenacious, but after the lukewarm aftermath of the June 2008 Long March, it was overtaken by other events. The latest agitation comes right after the Sharif brothers were ousted by Zardari, and threw their weight behind the lawyers. I have nothing but respect and admiration for Pakistan's lawyers; they've far outstripped anyone's expectations with their tenacity and sacrifice. However, I still wonder whether the victory gets chalked up to civil society or the PML-N.
Question 1: How likely are we to see the CJ take a corruption case against the Sharifs, or whoever heads the most powerful party at a given time?
The ghost of Chief Justice Sajjad Ali Shah
At the heart of the crisis lay the simple, dirty truth that in Pakistan, the Executive Branch of government (either the President or the Prime Minister, at different stages of our history) is King. The Executive has undercut the Judiciary before. The alleged vanguard of the current struggle, Nawaz Sharif, has a documented history of derailing the judiciary. Remember how he wrangled the 13th Chief Justice, Sajjad Ali Shah out of office in 1997? Remember also how power-hungry we all thought he was getting back then, and how relieved we all were when a certain General led a coup against him?
Question 2: If illegal activity by the Executive is alleged and proven in a court, can and will the Supreme Court order the President, Prime Minister, or Army Chief to fall in line?
Justice to the villages
The beauty of the lawyers' movement was that it let the Pakistani on the street dare to dream. Yes, we've had a history beset with preying feudals, violence against minorities and the weak, the breakdown of the bureaucracy and the rot of corruption, and we're threatened by the spectre of suicide bombings and radicalization, but if we can only bring justice to the Chief Justice, maybe, just maybe, we might see a better Pakistan in our lifetimes.
You'd hope that those in power will look at Swat and FATA and realize that failing to work towards providing justice for all allows militants to undercut the nation state. If you're feeling particularly optimistic, you'd hope that one day, the murderers who beheaded innocent Pakistanis without trial will face a just trial in a lower Pakistani court. After all, there cannot be true Peace without Justice.
Question 3: Will Pakistan realize that, if it is to have meaning, the restoration of the judges must be thought of as the start, not the end of our struggle?

Ping is dead =(

2009-02-20T15:24:00.004-04:00

About five years ago, Fatima got herself two kittens soon after Coco died. Ever since, one of the constants in our home have been Ping and Pong running from room to room, fighting, or simply curling up on a sofa or in someone's lap and purring away.

They've been wonderful. And now Ping, after a brief but severe and undiagnosed illness is gone, leaving a furry, fiesty, needy little void in our lives...

India's RTI Act

2009-02-18T00:58:00.002-04:00

Here's an article about India's young Right to Information Act (RTI).

Yet more evidence that India is systematically, if slowly, moving towards mature governance. The important thing is not that India now has something similar to America's Freedom of Information (FOI) laws, but that RTI emerged as endogenously and the masses were able to take on the bureaucracy in this manner.

If Pakistan wants to move in the right direction, it should be competing with India not in terms of how many of your neighbor's people you can destroy, but how many of your own people you can serve...

Law and Economics in a nutshell

2009-02-18T00:44:00.001-04:00

Here's a 3 page summary of Law and Economics by Paul Rubin.

Blogging Hiatus

2009-02-16T20:14:00.003-04:00

As my deadlines get tighter, I'm trying to immerse myself as deeply as possible in my dissertation, which means pulling out all extracurricular writing/thinking/reading until I've successfully defended (my ambitious target is to graduate by August).

Therefore, while good and regular blogging is one of the things I hope to continue into the unforseen future, I'm giving Nothing Adds Up its first major break.

See you all on the other side!

P.S. I might continue blogging about material I read during the course of my research/teaching

Conflict Links

2009-02-13T14:01:00.003-04:00

Here's a good BBC documentary essentially arguing that the "War on Terror" needs to be contextualized in the previous Afghan conflict

Here are details of the astonishing news that the US lost 222,000 weapons in Afghanistan through poor accounting. Most of these weapons were stolen and the US now believes that they must be in Taliban hands. Wonderful. That helps explain why the Taliban have given the Pakistani Army such stiff resistance in NWFP. They're "supplied" by the most sophisticated army in the world...

Finally, I've been reading the US National Security Archives hosted by GW. They're eye-opening...

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Bad start to the day

2009-01-26T10:33:00.004-04:00

Faisal and I saw a fire erupt in a van on I-66 today about 400 meters in front of us in our lane. Not sure if the people got out in time, which is disturbing. We passed one lane over from it, and felt the heat from the fire from inside our car. Fire engine was in my rearview mirror as we cleared it, but the van had already burned to a crumb.

Ironically, it was a beautiful morning, with light snowfall gently hitting our windshield most of the way.
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How 'bout giving a couple to me?

2009-01-21T00:15:00.002-04:00

Pictures of the rising stocks of unsold cars post-Downturn. Not sure if prices are really inelastic, but it looks that way.

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Today's most vile news from Pakistan

2009-01-19T23:42:00.003-04:00

Rehman Malik makes my blood boil:

“If India (keeps) insisting on … handing over the suspects of the Mumbai attacks, we will also ask it to hand over the accused of the Samjhauta Express blast,” Adviser to the Prime Minister on Interior Rehman Malik said on Sunday.

What sort of bloody logic is that? The Samjhauta Express Bombings killed 68 people, most of them Pakistanis. It was personally shocking at the time (to me, not least because the Samjhauta forms a cornerstone in my most pleasant memories of India). One would hope that Pakistan would pursue the best means available to it, pacific or antagonistic, to have justice brought to the terrorists who executed this plan. Instead, we're using it as a bloody bargaining chip in our spat with our neighbor.

Can you imagine what must be going through the minds of the victims' families?
Don't they have the right to ask why Pakistan didn't pursue the case before Mumbai?
Don't the dead deserve not to be made Rehman Malik's pawns in this Godforsaken 'diplomacy'?

Pakistan should certainly keep follow-up inquiries and diplomatic pressure on India to fully investigate the Samjhota Bombings, and seek a clarification about the role an Indian Military Intelligence Colonel arrested in these regards played. But these should be two separate cases: one would hope that the Pakistani government doesn't need a Mumbai every time to investigate its murdered citizens' deaths, and that the zest we show in pursuing such cases is the same whether the crime happens in India or America, China or Chile.

But, I'm afraid, we're too busy duking it out with India to care.

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One man's inauguration versus 1300 lives

2009-01-19T23:26:00.002-04:00

As widely predicted at the start of the conflict, Israel has announced a pullback in time for Barack Obama's inauguration in D.C. tomorrow.

Essentially, Israel has indicated that it values the inauguration of one American president more than the lives of the 1300-odd Palestinians killed in Gaza (of whom at least half were civilians according to the UN) in the last three weeks.

Think about it: if this was a war forced upon Israel, and was as necessary and righteous as it claims, would a foreign president's inauguration be a reason to stop fighting?
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Becker & Posner: Stimulating the Economy

2009-01-19T22:49:00.002-04:00

Becker and Posner continue this week the topic they left off last week: the stimulus of the economy.

Summaries of the posts, and why I suspect they're mistaken, below the jump.

Becker points out that much of the spending will not decrease unemployment, but draw away workers already employed elsewhere. Efficiency will inevitably be sacrificed at the altar of increasing short-term demand, and taxes will distort incentives.

Posner talks about similar problems, then states:

...we must be careful not to view costs and benefits in too narrow terms. Even a worthless project, if it puts people to work, can reduce the economic impact of a depression, as Keynes argued long ago.

Posner here is stating an old idea less vividly; Keynes argued that the government would do better by paying people to dig holes and then fill them, then to do nothing about depression.

I've only got a year of graduate Macro under my belt, so I'm no expert on the issue, but to my mind, its a sad commentary on Macroeconomics if we haven't moved on from the 1930s in our logic. In his defense, Posner does add a caveat:

The more specialized the American workforce has become, the less effect Keynesian public-works projects are likely to have on employment.

Fundamentally however, it seems as if the nature of the debate isn't focused enough on the questions of efficiency, bureaucrat and special interest incentives, or the fundamental question: "Why does unemployment happen anyway?"

It strikes me as strange that you don't hear much of the benefits of lessiz faire these days. Until Macroeconomists have a better handle on the reasons for unemployment et.al., the best they can offer seems to be Keynes, and that theory essentially sets microeconomics aside in answering the question: "why do countries experience depressions?"

War Videos of the Day

2009-01-19T08:12:00.003-04:00

Last night, I saw the 2007 videos: "Meeting the Taliban" & Fighting the Taliban, links to the first parts on Youtube of which are here and here.

Unfortunately, there is a sad twist here: Sean Langan, the reporter seen risking his life to make these videos was kidnapped in Northern Pakistan and held for a ransom of 150,000 pounds. While it makes perfect sense to pay ransom to get a relative or employee released, it increases the incentives for more kidnappings in the future. Moreover, I shudder to think how much ammo the Taliban could buy for 150,000 pounds...

This event notwithstanding, the reporting is excellent and adds another piece to the mental picture I'm trying to compile of FATA and Afghanistan.

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The-Information-Revolution-oh-never-mind

2009-01-16T04:07:00.003-04:00

Many moons (almost a year) ago, I blogged about the comparison of a paper from a century ago, comparing an early 20th century paper to an early 21st century one.

Today, I tried to do something of the same sort by comparing the Daily Globe of Minnesota from January 1st, 1880 to the current edition online (January 16th 2009), to show how globalization has made us far more aware of what is going on around the world.

Much to my dismay, glancing at the first page of their website today, I saw much less international news than on 1-1-1880, when the news used to have to be wired, and international news used to flow only through each country's capital. In the case of "Cabul", where the Mohemmedans and Hindus were fighting (some things...), the news published was five days old, and had been routed through London, but at least it was printed...

Of course, this isn't a scientific text analysis, I just looked at the front page of the site versus the front page of the old paper, but still...

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Our War

2009-01-16T00:21:00.002-04:00

The more I study the war in Pakistan's North, the more I realize that we're not fighting locals on the bidding of the US, we're fighting for Pakistan.

The question under dispute is the future direction Pakistan will take: will we remain a centrist state where people are overtly religious, but the state doesn't dictate acceptable beliefs for the most part, or will we openly come to organize our state around the beliefs of the particular group in power.

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The Background
In retrospect, we the Pakistani people must accept that we are responsible for allowing this state of affairs to emerge: there was widespread dissatisfaction with Zia's "Islamization" of elements of our country (with the approval and support of the CIA, to provide a raison d'etre for the Afghan 'Jihad' against the Russians), but that battle was lost, and we've reaped what we sowed in the shape of the prevalence of drugs and AK-47s in the '90s, and this new war in the Tribal Areas post 9-11.

Yet the Zia/CIA/ISI dynamic can only be blamed for part of our problems, the subsequent strategic decision in the 90s to arm the remaining irregulars to fight in Kashmir, financed by petrodollars has blown up badly in the form of our own Blowback. If the CIA helped establish the forces that attacked America on 9/11, the ISI helped establish those that have since killed far more of our own people in suicide bombings and beheadings galore.

Political Failures Today
If that was that, our problems would be serious, but local to FATA. What makes the current war so serious for Pakistan ('an existentialist threat' is the current buzzword) is the failure of mainstream political parties, only part of which can be blamed on the ISI.

This has caused two problems: first, 60s years after independence, we don't have a single functional political party with robust wings in all four provinces. Indeed, the parties have organized fairly neatly around provinical lines, doing well in their 'home' provinces, and horribly 'away'. This has encouraged an ethnic, rather than national outlook.

Second, the lack of functioning political parties has meant that leaders have not been substantially accountable to the people, causing the breakdown of the public sector. Unfortunately, the current leadership seems particularly deaf to these issues. This is not surprising, given how it came to power and the track record of Zardari and his gang. The tragedy is that not even the discourse has changed from the petty politics of the past.

The Lack of Good Fences, and the Danger of Simplistic Us v Them
One of the messy dynamics in the current war is the harboring of militants by the ISI. Its motivations in doing so aren't incomprehensible: seeing an irregular capability built up over decades magiced out of existence due to international events must have been a hard blow to strategic planners, and even harder to accept for operatives weaved into these tribal outfits over decades. In hindsight, there is no ambiguity in my mind that the ISI focus on encouraging irregulars within our own country was both morally and tactically wrong: when you supply someone a gun, he can shoot at you.

However, David Milliband, the British FM talked good sense recently (even if his Indian PR stunt was silly), no matter what his critics have been saying (emphasis mine):

The more we lump terrorist groups together and draw the battle lines as a simple binary struggle between moderates and extremists, or good and evil, the more we play into the hands of those seeking to unify groups with little in common. Terrorist groups need to be tackled at root, interdicting flows of weapons and finance, exposing the shallowness of their claims, channelling their followers into democratic politics.

The "war on terror" also implied that the correct response was primarily military. But as General Petraeus said to me and others in Iraq, the coalition there could not kill its way out of the problems of insurgency and civil strife.

This is what divides supporters and opponents of the military action in Gaza. Similar issues are raised by the debate about the response to the Mumbai attacks. Those who were responsible must be brought to justice and the government of Pakistan must take urgent and effective action to break up terror networks on its soil. But on my visit to south Asia this week, I am arguing that the best antidote to the terrorist threat in the long term is cooperation. Although I understand the current difficulties, resolution of the dispute over Kashmir would help deny extremists in the region one of their main calls to arms, and allow Pakistani authorities to focus more effectively on tackling the threat on their western borders.

This logic applies equally to the War in Pakistan's North, again for two reasons: the first was mentioned explicitly by Milliband - resolving Kashmir peacefully takes away the main point of conflict between India and Pakistan, and would help calm our borders and hinterlands considerably by talking away a big motivation for conflict. Let me clarify, the fact that Kashmir is disputed does NOT legitimize Mumbai or any other undeclared attacks, or attacks on civilians. It would however lay the necessary groundwork for lasting peace. Unfortunately, the Indian government has promptly denied the logic of the argument.

Second, I watched today the PBS documentary 'Return of the Taliban' (aside: also illuminating as background reading is Winston Churchill's account of FATA from his time posted there during the 19th century) in which they discuss the US strategy of drone strikes on Al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Indeed, the US fascination with Osama Bin Laden is symptompatic of this way of thinking: focusing on the leaders rather than the movement. Drone strikes on belligerant leaders may be quick, cheap in money and lives, and tangible, but while they may be important in trimming the mental capabilities of a group, and discouraging others, Al-Qaeda and the Taliban have both shown a robust ability to replace fallen leaders quickly, and the new heads are often sharper than the old ones. Moreover, the risk of hitting innocent people, and of striking a people's heartland without providing visible links to the causation risks alienating more and more people. We need to understand and tackle the reasons people accept the ideology and tackle it even while we battle belligerants on the ground.

Hitting the Opium Trade
The Taliban have, according to a recent UN study, been financed very substantially by the somewhat shrunk, but very lucrative opium trade in Afghanistan. This is a remarkable volte-face by the Taliban, which clamped down hard on the menace when it was in power (substantially increasing its popularity at the time). While Pakistan can't clamp down on poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, it can focus on ensuring that the Taliban can't use Pakistani supply routes to trade the opium that would ultimately finance their war on the Pakistani Army.

Owning the Conflict
Ultimately, we Pakistanis have to make this conflict our own: our political parties and civil societies must come to appreciate the price of their failure across the country. The continuing, but weakened, lawyers' movement is one bright spot, but there needs to be a fundamental change in the system. We have to make this our own project: there needs to be internal pressure on the government to act against violent groups, not because of Indian pressure or American monies. If/When the Americans leave, the conflict will continue to fester and grow, unless there is action against it by our own people.

One of the major reasons radical ideologies have proven so easily acceptable is the rampant poverty and lack of justice. Swat fell in part for this reason. We need to ensure the same can't happen again.

The best article you will read today...

2009-01-15T14:24:00.003-04:00

Steve Coll has the full story of Lasantha Wickramatunga's letter from the grave. Wickramatunga was editor of The Sunday Leader, a Sri Lankan paper highly critical of the government and its fight with the Tamil rebels.

Read it.

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Pakistan's War in the North: Update

2009-01-14T14:03:00.004-04:00

Last night, I posted the first of a two part series on the fighting in Pakistan. They are eye-opening, and give us a sense of the scale and complexity of the fighting.

This second part of the series is, if anything, even better than the first, and shows fighting on the porous front lines in Bajaur, near the Afghan border. The tactics of the Taliban are astonishing.

Here's the first video, the rest are below the jump:

Excellent coverage by the war correspondent and his team, by the way.

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1000 dead in Gaza...

2009-01-14T13:07:00.002-04:00

...and what has Israel achieved?

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I was going to call this post: "Congratulations Israel! You have now killed 1000 mostly innocent people in two weeks."

This is such, utter, injustice.

Pakistan's War in the North

2009-01-14T01:54:00.002-04:00

Here is a documentary by Al-Jazeera which gives us a closer look at the War. Starting from Lal Masjid, the presenter takes us through footage of Al-Qaeda training and indoctrination of little kids, the price the Pakistan Army is paying, and the dirty tactics the militants are adopting (making children execute prisoners, beheadings, hiding weapons in mosques, razing schools, and kidnapping foreigners).

The sad thing is both sides claim their dead as martyrs.

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There is also a second part you can watch, but I haven't seen that yet so am not linking to it.

The Best of Asia

2009-01-13T16:46:00.003-04:00

Time has a nice slideshow about some of the most beautiful and fun places to visit, and some unusually good Asian products.

Number 6 is Johar Joshanda by Qarshi, one of Pakistan's most respected companies.

Read about it in the links above!

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Jump into the Mumbai debate!

2009-01-13T16:29:00.002-04:00

Excellent debate in the comments to my recent post on Mumbai.
Read my post and the following comments here.
I don't have time to respond fully to the most recent comments, but look forward to doing so soon.

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Pakistan News Roundup

2009-01-13T15:58:00.003-04:00

In Brief, details after the Jump:

Saudi Intel Chief in Pakistan
Indian PM sends a card to Pakistan
The Lahore High Court overrules the military

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Saudi Intel Chief in Pakistan:
What was he there for?
Farhan Mamoo, reporting for CBS, writes that he discussed India-Pakistan relations with the government.
Geo reports meanwhile, that "Saudi Arab King Abdullah has urged Pakistani leadership to resolve their internal issues through mutual dialogues." Is this a reference to the rumored fissures developing within the government, or in FATA?
Personally, I don't trust the Saudis. They've been hand-in-glove with our government in supporting the Taliban pre-9/11, and much of the funding of the militants is strongly suspected to flow from the Kingdom. As an aside, here's a great article on following the trail of the Taliban in the Guardian
What are the Saudis up to now?
Indian PM Manmohan Singh has sent a card carrying "the picture of a white dove with flowers in its beak" to Pakistan:
That is excellent, excellent news. A card, unlike cricket, can't bring two hostile nations to stand down so easily, but at least it is a step. Tragically, I just came across this 2005 article where Musharraf and Singh declared the peace process irreversible. Mumbai has instantly shattered the first positive signs in our mutual relationship in my lifetime.
The Lahore High Court overrules a court-martial:
This, on face value, is a very significant case, and may test the Army's 'patience' with the civilian government. Dawn reports:
Lahore High Court’s Rawalpindi bench has set aside the conviction of a lieutenant colonel by the Field General Court Martial (FGCM) on charges of concealing his property and enabled him to claim financial benefits from the army.

The unprecedented decision may open the floodgates to appeals against the military justice system.

The most important video I've seen this month

2009-01-13T03:35:00.003-04:00

I just came across this video, made by Imran Khan a couple of months after 9/11. In it, he talks about Muslims in Pakistan and Afghanistan and how they reacted to the 9/11 attacks and the subsequent attacks on Afghanistan. The predictions he made turn out to be more accurate than I could ever have fathomed in late 2001.

Embedding is disabled, but whether you're Pakistani, American, Indian, or none of these, do watch it.

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For non-Pakistani readers, Imran Khan is hard to explain. Read his wikipedia entry for starters. Khan is a former captain of the Pakistan cricket team, and captained it to its only World Cup in 1992. Along the way, he was Pakistan's most eligible bachelor, and was often embroiled in scandal. However, after leaving cricket, he set up a charity-run cancer hospital in Pakistan, started a political party, refused to accept the Prime Ministership when it was offered to him through corrupt means, and all around became one of the most impressive Pakistanis today.

This video was also interesting to me personally. First of all, my dad was treated at Khan's hospital in 1997 when he contracted cancer. I've also seen him give live talks a couple of times, and he gave a talk to the Econ Society at LUMS when I was its president back in 2005. Having had tea with Imran Khan is still something to brag about to guys in Pakistan ;) Second, the second person interviewed is Nadia Jamil, my class 10 English teacher, and well-respected Pakistani theater actress. Third, near the end of the documentary, Khan takes the viewer through the Main gates of Aitchison College, my preparatory, secondary and high school, and when he's standing in front of the Old Building, my class 9 classroom is just in the background.

But anyway, these are merely amusing endnotes to a very well done and serious documentary. Watch it!

Site Maintenance: Jumps added

2009-01-12T22:24:00.005-04:00

I've made one more modification I've wanted to make for a long time now: added 'jumps' or 'expandable posts' code to my blog. There is now a "Click here to read full post" link at the bottom of each post. In fact, try it on this post...

...The idea is to keep the main page of my blog easy to scroll through/clutter-free, and allow readers to skip through to posts of interest quickly, while preserving my freedom to write as much as I may want on a particular topic.

Here's the Blogger help page, and a slightly more clear third-party instruction page to accomplish this.

It isn't perfect, and gets buggy if your post HTML has the "span" tag elsewhere in it, which often happens when you copy-paste. It also has the problem that the link appears on every blog post, rather than only those which have something below the fold, but in sum, I think its worth it.

Gaza Update: War crime charges

2009-01-12T21:16:00.007-04:00

Excerpts from the Guardian. Read the full story here:

The UN's senior human rights body approved a resolution yesterday condemning the Israeli offensive for "massive violations of human rights". A senior UN source said UN humanitarian agencies were compiling evidence of war crimes and passing it on to the "highest levels" to be used as seen fit.

The Israeli military are accused of:
• Using powerful shells in civilian areas that the army knew would cause large numbers of innocent casualties.
• Using banned weapons such as phosphorus bombs.
• Holding Palestinian families as human shields.
• Attacking medical facilities, including the killing of 12 ambulance men in marked ambulances
• Killing large numbers of policeman who had no military role.

Israeli military actions prompted an unusual public rebuke from the International Red Cross after the army had moved a Palestinian family into a building and shelled it, killing 30. The surviving children clung to the bodies of their dead mothers for four days while the army blocked rescuers from reaching the wounded.
Human Rights Watch has called on the UN security council to set up a commission of inquiry into alleged war crimes.
Amnesty International says the dropping of powerful shells on residential streets that send blast and shrapnel over a wide area constitutes "prima facie evidence of war crimes".
Israel's most prominent human rights organisation, B'Tselem, has written to the attorney general in Jerusalem, Meni Mazuz, to press him to investigate a number of suspected crimes including how the military selects its targets and the killing of scores of policemen at a passing out parade.
Rovera has also collected evidence that the Israeli army holds Palestinian families prisoner in their own homes as human shields. "It's standard practice for Israeli soldiers to go into a house, lock up the family in a room on the ground floor and use the rest of the house as a military base, as a snipers' position. That is the absolute textbook case of human shields.

Becker & Posner: Obama's Stimulus Plan has problems

2009-01-12T20:58:00.006-04:00

Note: Before diving into this week's topic, let me do something I didn't do last week, and introduce this new post category. I've been procrastinating on starting a series of posts where I read and summarize posts on the Becker-Posner blog for sometime, and I've finally jumped into it.

I plan to post this series every Monday. I may cancel it or switch to other blogs at some point, and here is what I intend to do: I will, as a minimum, summarize and reword their posts; try to write for the general reader; and vary between adding my own take on the topic or not, in which case it'll be pretty clear what my opinion is, from the text.

The question Becker and Posner concern themselves with this week is the Obama Stimulus Plan for the US economy:

Posner leads:

The US is in depression. There has been a negative output shock, deflation, and public anxiety. If all prices were flexible, a negative demand shock would only mean lower prices, not lower output. Price flexibility is not usually observed however, especially of wages. Wage rigidity is an important puzzle for economists, and Posner included, we don't understand it too well, although he takes a stab at answering this question.

Whatever the reasons, since wages are rigid and demand low, producers respond by reducing supply, and laying people off. Those who fear or actually are laid off reduce demand, reinforcing the negative output shock. Producers also respond by lowering prices, and the resultant deflation causes people to hoard money, in the expectation that it will be worth more in the future.

There are two ways to stimulate the economy: using monetary or fiscal policy.

The first of these methods entails increasing the printing of money by the central bank, which it then sells to banks. The banks buy the newly-printed money by selling federal securities/bonds/debt to the government. They then give the money out to customers as loans.

Monetary policy hasn't worked in the current crisis, because banks fear giving out risky loans, and have instead bought a type of security similar to cash (i.e. have saved up the cash). The money supply has not increased as a result, and so monetary policy has not worked to stimulate the economy.

The second method to stimulate the economy is by Fiscal policy, essentially increasing government spending to compensate for the decrease in private spending. The proposed plan is divided into tax cuts (which increase money available in households and so indirectly increase spending), spending on infrastructure, or social spending.

Posner asks 3 questions: a) is the Obama plan necessary?

Posner mentions that "Almost the entire economics profession converted--virtually overnight--from being Milton Friedman monetarists (Friedman believed that only bad monetary policy could turn a recession into a depression) to being John Maynard Keynes deficit spenders." He then assumes they are correct to believe that the plan is necessary. Becker, in the sister-piece that follows, raises questions about the wisdom of this conversion.

is a sad commentary of the profession that it has given up its views so easily. Was the evidence really that strong, or our existing conjectures laid on such weak foundations?

A related question, b) "Is the plan of the right size?" is not answered.

The final question Posner tackles is whether the Obama plan is well laid out, dealing with those three areas of tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and social spending (or transfer payments.)

Posner argues that the first, tax cuts, aren't a good idea because they will likely increase savings, not spending. He then raises two points which leave the reader puzzled about the logic: a lack of savings was part of the reason for the current depression in the first place, and tax cuts only increase spending slightly. In the comments section, one of his readers puzzles why, if a lack of savings was part of the problem, do we worry about increased savings.

Social spending, Posner argues, aren't a good idea because a) they might cause an overshooting of demand beyond targeted levels and cause inflation, and because b) they can cause interest groups to emerge

Social spending (transfer payments) aren't a good idea because this might cause an overshooting of demand beyond targeted levels and cause inflation. The other problem is that they can cause the rise of interest groups that pressurize the government to maintain the extra spending, after the current crisis is over.

Posner believes that these issues don't attach themselves with the same force to spending on infrastructure. What makes him believe this is left unclear.

Finally, Posner believes that even for projects whose costs exceed their benefits, it may make sense to green-light them because they confer positive externalities on the overall economy, reducing unemployment fears and causing a positive multiplier effect.

Thinking through the logic, I'm sure economists and non-economists alike will see plenty of points of contention. Not even Posner, one of my academic heroes, seems able to make sense of Macroeconomics...

Becker adds:

Increased government spending during full employment would draw resources away from other activities (crowding them out). The GDP would not alter much, but efficiency could either increase or decrease.

In an economy with lower employment levels, such as the US at this time, spending will only crowd out some private sector activities, and may also lead to the multiplier effect Posner has already discussed.

Becker points to calculations done by Obama-linked (but/and widely respected) economists Romer and Bernstein, that predict that an increase in spending of about 7% of GDP will cause a decrease in unemployment equal to 2% of the workforce by the end of next year. He criticizes these numbers, pointing out that about a fifth of the employment increase modeled rests on irregular assumptions, that it is unlikely that stimulus-related projects will employ those already unemployed, and that the projects are unlikely to be as efficient as the activities they will pull workers from.

Finally, some good news for Americans: the current recession is likely to be smaller than the 1981-2 one, and as downturns go, is probably pretty mild.

Update: Here's a little sprinkling of MR

Alex posts on the Minn. Fed's graphical comparison of the current v previous recessions, and this seems to confirm that things aren't so bad after all.

Tyler posts on 8 reasons the US is in recession right now. This reminds me of that Macro class I took with him more than 3 years ago. He follows them up by pointing out that a) the stimulus alone won't fix things, and b) forecasting, as usual, is difficult.

The IMF and its Discontents

2009-01-12T01:21:00.006-04:00

I reread this week Globalization and its Discontents, a 2002 book by Joe Stiglitz which mostly criticizes the IMF for its dealings with underdeveloped countries.

Stiglitz has made some of the most important contributions to economics in the last few decades, and this book got a lot of press at the time because he had won the Nobel prize only a year earlier, and was a former chief economist of the World Bank.

The most important accomplishment of the book was to document the failure of the IFIs in the 90s, and lend Stiglitz's significant authority to the criticism already emanating from other quarters.

Globalization is at its strongest when Stiglitz reveals the actual workings of the IFIs from instances when he was himself involved in the debates and decisions. The breadth of the material covered is at a minimum, eye-opening.

The other strong suit of the book is in Stiglitz's appreciation of the existence of both market and government failures. While free-market economists have often decried the nirvana fallacy often present in public planning, they are sometimes guilty of the same fallacy in reverse, in not sufficiently accounting for market failures. Stiglitz, who has done important work on information assymetry and other market imperfections, fills the pages of this book with examples of situations where the unbrindled market has caused large externalities.

On the other hand, the book has two low points: first, Stiglitz becomes downright vitriolic in his criticism not only of the institutions, but individuals within them. I think he could have made many of this points without the raw tongue-lashings that make him, at times, sound excessively bitter. Second, Stiglitz errs too far, I believe on the side of the government: while he points to corruption in Russia and elsewhere, he doesn't in my opinion, sufficiently weave the lessons of Public Choice into his story.

There is one other flaw, not so much in the book but in its title: this really isn't a book about Globalization, nor does it criticize the idea much. It's a criticism of particular institutions, and the form of Globalization they wrought when given the chance. As such, the title was poorly conceived and misleading.

At a time when Pakistan has plunged itself back into the opium that is IMF debt, its well worth a read. Pakistanis need to think deep about the costs (not only financial, but importantly the public choice costs) of going to the IMF again. We need to be more critical, or at least cognizant, of the heavy costs of doing so, and this should be a more vocal issue in Pakistan than it currently is. As Stiglitz points out, defaulting is not crippling to an economy, and should not be avoided at any and all costs. As such, it makes sense today for more Pakistanis to take a second look at this book.

I read parts of this book back in my freshman year in undergrad. It was interesting to do a reread and see how my take on it has evolved over the years. It's a quick read and in balance, worth the time, provided one keeps in mind the very obvious limitations herein.

Today's Conflict News

2009-01-11T19:51:00.004-04:00

The body count in Gaza stands at 879, at least 257 of which were children. FP has two photo shows worth watching:
- one is on the effect on children on both sides, which documents the direct effect on children during conflict, and the hate this begets after;
- the other documents the tunnels under the Gaza-Egypt border that Israel is trying to close down because arms allegedly flow through them. This second slideshow is eye-opening, the most succinct summary of the problems in Gaza I've seen, and so is strongly recommended for all. It's clear that these tunnels could easily be allowed to transport weapons, but when they're also being used to transport everything from cows for slaughter to animals for the Gaza Strip zoo, it's clear that the proper solution to the conflict must include giving the Palestinians easier access to the outside world.
Also, I'm not sure why Egypt is so averse to allowing an international border force on the Gaza border. This would allow needed goods, but not weapons, to flow to Gaza, and may well be the only realistic, humanitarian solution to the problem. If these forces are limited to manning the border, come from neutral countries, and are perceived as helping solve the plight of their Palestinian brothers-in-faith, surely the Egyptian public won't perceive them as endangering its sovereignty? I'm puzzled.
The New York Times has broken the astonishing report that Israel asked the US for weapons and air access to Iran, so they could make a strike on suspected nuclear sites there. This is probably not offensive to most Americans sensibilities, but will be perceived in much of the rest of the world as astonishing and wrong-headed, to use the mildest possible terms.
Sectarian violence in Hangu, Pakistan claims 26, continues. This is the continuation of a long-standing sectarian conflict there, reportedly incited by Zia during the Afghan war, and continuing sporadically ever since. To understand the current battles, they must be contextualized as part of a long-continuing conflict, but one that is fed by the instability and proliferation of weapons in Afghanistan. Dawn reports:
Fighters on both sides have set up control rooms for monitoring and gathering reports from the battleground.
Sources said that both groups were using heavy weapons like mortars and anti-aircraft guns. Big lashkars were being raised to attack populated areas of rival sects.
Many of the fighters had reached the area from Orakzai and Kurram agencies to support their sects.
The report continues to state that large amounts of weapons were brought in from Afghanistan and a neighbouring district under Taliban control. Pakistan's helicopter gunships and planes are also said to have arrived, but left without participating in the conflict, continuing a lessiz faire attitude that the state has taken to this conflict in the past. It is incidents like this that make me think we should, as an academic exercise and wake-up call, redraw our map to more accurately show the areas under the central government's writ. I'd hazard to guess that territory that can truly be called part of the state will shrink by about 40% or so.
The Taliban have made a large-scale attack on a Pakistani military base. Afghan Taliban crossed over from their side of the border, joined up with their Pakistani counterparts, and attacked the base, which housed an elite force of the Pak Army. The Taliban also captured 4 of our soldiers, tortured them and chopped their ears off. Attacks such as these have firmed up Pakistani sentiments against the Taliban in recent times, but our hostility with India still reigns supreme, and we've redeployed 30% of our forces from the NorthWest to the East. Perhaps the Army has intelligence justifying the move, but to me, it seems like a strategic mistake. The fact that the Taliban war has gone full-scale has been confirmed by the army:
The Taliban and their allies have organized into military formations capable of fighting at the battalion and in some cases the brigade level. Today's attack in Mohmand comprised a force of at least battalion strength, with supporting mortar and rocket fires.
Pakistani officials confirmed the sophistication and organization of the Taliban in the tribal areas. During heavy fighting in Bajaur last fall, Pakistani military officials said the Taliban "have good weaponry and a better communication system (than ours)."

"Even the sniper rifles they use are better than some of ours," the Pakistani official told Dawn "Their tactics are mind-boggling and they have defenses that would take us days to build. It does not look as though we are fighting a rag-tag militia; they are fighting like an organized force."
We're in for one long war.

Snap Judgments on the Detroit Auto Show

2009-01-11T17:55:00.009-04:00

Cars are my rest; the balm to my heart after reading about Gaza, Kashmir, Waziristan, Zardari, Mumbai, Global Warming, Israel's wargaming on Iran, et.al.

Here are my reactions to reading a couple of paragraphs each about loads of interesting cars we've all been waiting for (by we, I mean us car nuts without real lives):

Most significant new car of the show (so far): the 2010 Ford Taurus. I used to be a big fan of Fords in the mid-90s, because it always seemed to me like the American company most likely to ever become competitive with the Japanese. I also have always been a secret fan of the Taurus: the first one was an acknowledged game changer for the industry, and the oval one in the 90s was the most original design for a mainstream car at the time. Later though, the watered down redesigns never brought anything new to the table, and were symptomatic of the decline of the US car industry. On the other hand, since the late 90s, the European Fords have been so good, that it has puzzled and dismayed me for years that they haven't brought similar ones to the US. This Taurus promises to be another game-changer (and as an aside, the leak we had about two years ago of the design was dead-on accurate).

Most significant news you might not know: The excellent Hyundai Genesis has been named American Car of the Year. If this car doesn't become the unmitigated success it deserves to become, it'd be a downright tragedy. If you're considering a Chrysler 300/Toyota Avalon/Lexus ES3x0, or even, dare I say it, a base E-Class, 5-series, GS, you need to at least go and test drive one of these. The smug satisfaction of being car-savvy is included in the purchase price ;)

The Honda Insight is out: The Insight is meant to lure holier-than-thou Prius drivers out of their smug-mobiles and into something equally awful. Never mind that Honda produces more efficient cars that probably have a smaller environmental footprint in the long run elsewhere; never mind the small print about changing driving styles, car-pooling and reducing consumption elsewhere, the Insight has a hatchback a la Prius, and so it must be green. Let's all go and buy one. I'm terribly disappointed with the direction Honda is taking with this, and other future and new products. They're playing catch-up, and really don't look very innovative (with the notable exception of the Clarity) at this point.

Chrysler woes: the 200C EV concept is beautiful, but Chyrsler has never wanted for beautiful concept cars (or at least, didn't want for beautiful cars until about 4-5 years ago: I don't see one model at my local Chrysler dealership that I consider beautiful or cutting edge). Can they actually deliver? I doubt it. The Circuit EV is so pitiful, it almost makes me cry. Precisely why do they need to trot out a Lotus at every autoshow and claim it as theirs? If they are collaborating with Lotus behind the scenes, surely there is a better way to market that than slapping a dodge grille on the Europa.

Of Hybrids and the evolution of Design languages: The new Lexus HS250h looks like a Corolla in drag, especially from the sides. I'm mildly interested in that mouse-like control where the transmission lever usually is, but that's it. I'm sure it's a good car and will do well, but it looks boring.

Another car that I find boring is the new Cadillac Converj hybrid concept. Since the Evoq and Cien concepts, Cadillac has been stuck on one design language. Sure, they've developed that concept over time, most notably on the CTS, but I fear they might start losing their edge if they don't evolve it more aggressively, and concept cars are the place to do it. A missed opportunity in my opinion.

Speaking of evolving design languages, I find Volkswagen's, with the Scirocco, and continuing with the Golf Mk6 and Bluesport concept to be decent, if not earth-shatteringly good. Viewed in comparison to its Audi cousins (more on which in a minute), it becomes mildly-disappointing. The Bluesport should be a good car though, giving Honda Insight mileage in a convertble sportscar.

I'm more disappointed with the Subaru Legacy concept. The Legacy has long been one of my favorite cars, but the Legacy concept looks like an ugly myriad of changes for the sake of change. I don't think making the Legacy more ugly will fix Subaru's below-expectations performance. They're not going to succeed by competing directly with Toyota and Honda, and shouldn't be trying. The only problem I think they have is one of perceptions (primarily, that there aren't in most people's minds). What Subaru needs is a clever marketing strategy, which emphasizes their differences and the advantages these entail. They need to somehow convey themselves as agricultural (robust, able to handle snow and dirt, long-lasting), but sophisticated (or at least intelligent, comfortable, wise) at the same time. That's a hard task, especially since they have to include the Impreza sub-brand in their message, but in my humble opinion, that's the way to go.

The Buick LaCrosse needs to happen already: This new Buick is very interesting (those rear lamps look in the pictures like they came from a BMW 5 series), and should follow on from the surprising Enclave in raising Buick's brand cachet, but I've seen too many pictures of it, and if they are too slow in bringing it to market, the interest might start to wane. Somewhat paradoxically, I think that fresh new designs age faster than more conservative ones, and this is the freshest new Buick sedan in recent memory, ergo, its probably going to age quicker. Buick: just do it!

Where's the Bangle? BMW has just brought out its second new car of the year, the new Z4 following on from the new 7. They're both decent designs, more graceful and proportionate than the older first-generation Bangle shapes, but they've been criticized, rightly in my opinion, for being too toned down. A little more flame-surfacing, but without the weird proportions would be worth it, I think. This criticism is only of the exterior: flame-surfacing never gelled well in the interior, and a return to simpler, more logical layouts oriented towards the driver is welcome to say the least.

Audi's Designs continue to shine: Audi remains from a design perspective, the best of the Germans. Their interiors have always been better, without the gimmickery Merc and BeeEmm both keep pushing, and their exteriors keep getting more and more interesting, while continuing to remain restrained. The Audi A5 is going to be pretty. If, as I suspect, the Estoque is based off the same platform, the point of a 4-door Lambo becomes clearer: it'd be cheap to do if it's going to share parts with an Audi. The Lambo-beauty also seems to have rubbed off on the Audi in some areas, although the Audi (concept) has a much nicer interior (although ironically, it seems to lift many of its elements from production and concept BMWs from recent memory)

Update 1:

The new Toyota Prius is out: regular readers, and those who've read so far, will already know what I think of the Prius. The new one gets slightly better mileage than the new Insight, is almost certainly going to be more expensive, and looks as ugly as ever. It also has a center instrument stack; I recently drove a rented Toyota Yaris with similar stack placement, and its the most inane idea since reversing-cameras-as-replacement-for-mirrors. Oh yes, this one is about 2% better looking than the butt-ugly first model.
The new Jag XKR has been made uglier for the sake of change: Enough said.
Volvos, yes, Volvos, have become pretty: Am I right in thinking the new designs, including this new S60 Concept, are the prettiest Volvos since the P1800?
Lincolns, yes Lincolns, have also become pretty: Before you think I've lost all semblances of sanity/aesthetics check out the new MKT, or the C Concept.

Gaza Casualties keep mounting...

2009-01-09T01:41:00.002-04:00

100 survivors and between 40-50 corpses found in Gaza:

"There are still people under demolished houses -- we are sure of it," said Khaled Abuzaid, an ambulance driver for the Red Cross who treated survivors at the site Wednesday and Thursday. "But without water or electricity, we are sure they will die."

In an interview at al-Quds Hospital, a Red Cross medical center in Gaza, Abuzaid said rescue workers found 16 bodies Wednesday in a large room of a house in Zaytoun: seven women, six children and three men, all members of the al-Samuni family.

Most had sustained trauma injuries from shelling, but many had gunshot wounds as well, he said. Four children, weak but alive, were found lying under blankets, nestled next to their dead mothers, Abuzaid said.

Abuzaid said he was part of a crew of 10 paramedics and other rescue workers who reached Zaytoun on Wednesday afternoon, during a three-hour break in combat operations in Gaza during which relief agencies were allowed to deliver supplies and medical care to stricken Gazans.
He said Israeli soldiers told the crew of Red Cross and Palestinian Red Crescent workers in advance that they were forbidden to take cameras, radios or cellphones to the site. It is standard practice for crews to carry such equipment on rescue missions.

The Red Cross has accused the Israeli military of repeatedly refusing to grant permission for ambulances to go to Zaytoun, even though soldiers were stationed outside the damaged houses and were aware people were wounded inside. In a statement issued early Thursday, the agency called the episode "unacceptable" and said the Israeli military had "failed to meet its obligation under international humanitarian law to care for and evacuate the wounded."

Earlier reports said that UN and other aid organizations pulled out of Gaza, and at least some aid workers accused Israel of targeting them despite being informed of their rescue activities.

Pakistan's West: What's going on?

2009-01-08T23:01:00.002-04:00

I was in the midst of writing a post about the war in FATA, but I'm not sure I understand what's going on.

Here are some questions:

What role does Pakistani intelligence play? The ISI chief says we have no link to the Taliban anymore, although he acknowledges that ties built up during the Afghan war and persevered with afterwards still exist. His Afghan counterpart claims otherwise. We have reason to be suspicious of both (they're spies after all): Pakistan is unlikely to have given up a strategic vision it has pursued for more than a decade that easy, and the present government in Afghanistan is at least moderately anti-Pakistani. As a sub-question, if Pakistan really does still mantain ties with the Talib, why haven't we learned from last June, when they almost took Peshawar?

Is Al-Qaeda really in Pakistan? If so, what's stopping a direct attack on them?

To what extent is the Army still supporting Lashkar-e-Tayyaba?

How does Pakistan deal with the endemic of misguided wannabe-jihadis?

Pakistan's East: Mumbai Update

2009-01-08T14:10:00.004-04:00

This keeps getting uglier and uglier:

First, the latest news is that Mumbai was engineered from within the borders of Pakistan. The intelligence dossier provided by India to Pakistan names specific people, at least one of whom has confessed to the attacks.

Then, Prime Minister Gilani commits an error that may be far graver than appears at first: National Security Adviser Mehmud Durrani gets sacked for admitting to an Indian news channel that Ajmal Kasab, the sole surviving terrorist from Mumbai, is a Pakistani. Disappointing and dangerous as Kasab's nationality may be, there can be no good reason to deny his nationality after it has been conclusively proven. But while Durrani may have acted foolishly and irresponsibly, and probably deserved removal, the signal being sent is that Pakistan is either in denial, or worse, trying to hide something about the Mumbai attacks. Gilani's actions will almost certainly be paraded out in debates in India as evidence of the great Pakistani coverup of Mumbai.

There was only one appropriate reaction to Mumbai: outright rage and solidarity with India. Yes, on matters of principle, it is okay to express solidarity with India. Zardari's decision to send the ISI chief to India was probably the correct one. What was the harm? The Indians couldn't detain and interrogate him, and it would have served to deflect the knee-jerk assumption that was being made all over India at the time that Pakistan was responsible. Maybe Kiyani was right in overruling that decision, maybe Pasha had intelligence that would have endangered us in the hands of the Indians, but to me as a spectator, it reeks of insecurity and poor judgment.

Sure, the Indians made their own blunders, for example, by dusting off a five year old list of 20 wanted Pakistanis and demanding their extradition before the investigation had gotten underway, but that's not the point: it is our own response to the situation that we should worry about.

For reasons better known to those in power, Pakistan did not respond by supporting India when it was hurting. Justly or not, the initial, ignorant finger-pointing in the heat of the attacks was allowed to settle through actions that seem to confirm the suspicions of the Indian public.

However, India can't go to war either because it would be diplomatically problematic, or because they can't risk pressing Pakistan to the wall and risking nuclear war, or because they simply don't see the point of a war which will end up hurting them and us without changing the balance of power significantly. For whatever reason then, the Indian public and military alike seems to hold Pakistan responsible, and India finds itself frustrated.

Now a Pakistani might read all this and feel mildly disappointed and stop thinking about the problem, or worse, gloat at boxing India in strategically.

However, how will the Indians think? Let's ask some:

Pranab Mukherjee, India’s foreign minister, said that his government was keeping all options open. Vikram Sood, the former top spy, provided the translation. Sood called for tough action to prevent the Pakistani army from “Balkanising” India. In his view, the army’s quest dates back to 1971, when India dismembered Pakistan.

Arundhati Ghose, India’s former UN representative, opined undiplomatically, “If there is another attack, we should go in and bomb the daylights out of them.” Pradeep Kaushiva, a retired vice admiral, said that every Indian in uniform feels “that the country has been attacked and someone must pay for it.”

BJP parliamentarian Arun Shourie called for covert actions to be carried out in Balochistan, Gilgit and Baltistan. He declared, “Not an eye for an eye; but for an eye, both eyes.”

And now some of my fellow Pakistanis will be seeing red and describing Shourie and the rest in choice Punjabi words, and quite soon, if Shourie and his ilk in Pakistan have their way, we'll all be blind.

Excesses from the other war

2009-01-08T13:59:00.003-04:00

There are two wars going on right now, and both have clamped down on media freedom. While the Israelis aren't letting journalists in despite a Supreme Court ruling, Sri Lankan journalists have faced a more direct threat:

...Thursday, the editor of a newspaper highly critical of the government was shot and killed by gunmen as he drove to work, police said.
The attack on Lasantha Wickramatunga of the Sunday Leader newspaper came two days after men armed with grenades and assault rifles attacked a private television station and torched much of its equipment.
Media rights groups have accused the government and its allies of trying to stifle dissent by vilifying opposition journalists as unpatriotic rebel sympathizers and creating an atmosphere that encourages violence against them.

Nature's beauty

2009-01-06T21:51:00.002-04:00

What with the ugly side of human nature plastered all over the news these days, a couple of moments' respite to look at the beauty of nature, and how some explorers are discovering it:

Here's a gallery of a researcher's efforts to chronicle different snowflake patterns. Nature is just so full of beauty in the most unexpected places.

Here's a mountain region in Africa researchers found while browsing Google Earth, and subsequently visited to discover numerous hitherto unknown fauna and flora, including a snake that can kill a human with a single bite!

Gaza Conflict

2009-01-05T19:44:00.012-04:00

Background

From the Wikipedia article:

19th June 2008: Egypt brokers a 6 month cease-fire between Hamas and Israel.

Violations started on 23rd June, with Qassam (small, undirected) rockets being fired from Gaza by Islamic Jihad in retaliation it claimed, for the killing of two Palestinians, 'causing two minor injuries.'

On 26 June, Hamas warned Israel that its closure of the Gaza border was seen as a major cease-fire violation. Nonetheless, Hamas called on other Palestinian factions to abide by the truce. Rocket and mortar attacks continued...
...on 20 December Hamas officially announced that they would not be extending the cease-fire. Citing Israeli border closures as the primary reason, Hamas then resumed its shelling of the western Negev.^[57] Hamas blamed Israel for the end of the ceasefire, saying it had not respected its terms, including the lifting of the blockade, under which little more than humanitarian aid^[27]has been allowed into Gaza. Israel said it initially began easing the blockade, but resumed it when Hamas failed to fulfill the agreed conditions, including ending all rocket fire and halting weapons smuggling.

The New York Times summed up the situation leading to the complete breakdown of the cease-fire and the dramatic increase in hostilities thus:

Opening the routes to commerce was Hamas’s main goal in its cease-fire with Israel, just as ending the rocket fire was Israel’s central aim. But while rocket fire did go down drastically in the fall to 15 to 20 a month from hundreds a month, Israel said it would not permit trade to begin again because the rocket fire had not completely stopped and because Hamas continued to smuggle weapons from Egypt through desert tunnels. Hamas said this was a violation of the agreement, a sign of Israel’s intentions and cause for further rocket fire. On Wednesday [24 Dec 08], some 70 rockets hit Israel over 24 hours, in a distinct increase in intensity.[26]

Obama's rhetoric

“If somebody was sending rockets into my house, where my two daughters sleep at night, I’m going to do everything in my power to stop that,” he says.

What, sir, would you do if someone placed your house under siege and didn't let water or medicines in?

I'd like to hear Obama comment on this stat: 18 Israelis have been killed by rocket strikes since 2001, i.e. in 8 years. More than 500 Palestinians have been killed in the last 8 days.

The Humanitarian Crisis

Wikipedia:

The UN states that the situation is a "18 month long human dignity crisis" in the Gaza strip, entailing "a massive destruction of livelihoods and a significant deterioration of infrastructure and basic services".
13,000 displaced
Fuel, Electricity and Telephones are out
Since 5 November, there has been a shortage of chlorine for water treatment, increasing the risk of outbreak of water diseases.
As of January 4th, 70% of Gaza has no access to water.
As of the fourth of January, all of Gaza City hospitals have been without main electricity for 48 consecutive hours, depending entirely on back-up generators. The hospitals warn that the generators are close to collapse.
For the second consecutive day (on the 4th), Israeli authorities have refused to allow an International Committee of the Red Cross emergency medical team into Gaza to help the staff of Shifa hospital.

What that means for the situation on the ground is this, as reported by CNN...

Here is another by the Guardian (link only).

...and this as reported by Al-Jazeera:

What are Israel's goals?

That's the question asked by, among others, Defensetech.org. The commentators there offer two hypotheses:

that the increased range of Gaza weapons has caused fears that a strike could eventually be made against the Israeli nuclear facility at Dimona. I wonder if that really had anything to do with it. Israel has one of the strongest military forces in the world. Any strike on a high-value target like that would surely be vectored and the source annhilated.
that the attacks are meant to reestablish the fear of Israel in the hearts of the rest of the Middle East. This is more plausible, but to what ends? Won't killing civilians and destroying infrastructure after months of seige simply produce more 'terrorists' willing to sacrifice themselves to get back at their attackers? Some point to the evidence that Hezbollah has remained quiet, but as this article points out, that may be due to internal dynamics more than due to any deterrence Israel impressed upon it in 2006

And then of course, there is the stated goal of reducing or eliminating the rocket attacks. On the evidence of history, all that will accomplish is a fanning of the fires. It might even be something some Palestinian fighters have been waiting for.

Proportionality

I keep coming back to this. Let us assume for a minute that Israel is justified in making an attack. On wikipedia today, the body counts are: 8 Israelis killed and 40 injured/ 537 Palestinians killed, and 2600 injured. Whose morality allows such an assymetry in casualties?

To quote this BBC article:

As Fred Abrahams, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch puts it: "Even if you have a legitimate target you can’t just drop 10-tonne bombs on it."

Five sisters in the Balousha family were killed as they slept together as, apparently, a nearby Hamas-linked mosque was bombed in Jabaliya refugee camp on the second day of Operation Cast Lead.
HRW is calling for an investigation. "Was the mosque a legitimate target? We have our doubts… Did they use weaponry that would limit damage to civilians? We have our serious doubts," says Mr Abrahams.

Becker & Posner: Don't raise gas taxes

2009-01-05T14:34:00.004-04:00

Becker argues that additional taxes on gas (proposed because they help reduce the usage of gas, and hence the pollution, congestion and other negative consequences of using gas) in the US economy does not make sense at this time. He argues that a gas tax will only exacerbate the problems facing auto manufacturers, and hence increase the costs of the auto bailout (even though he seems to think the bailout is a mistake). He also points out that to increase taxes in the midst of a depression isn't considered prudent. However, he caps his post by arguing that gas taxes make more sense than emissions standards in attaining the goals described.

Posner replies that he agrees on Becker's prescription of not raising taxes because the economy is deflationary, and in this context "raising taxes increases the danger by reducing the demand for goods and services". His penultimate paragraph makes good sense to me:

Becker points to the possibility of a double whammy: raising gasoline taxes would not only reduce the demand for cars but by doing so it would increase the cost of the auto bailout. I am inclined to disagree if the bailout is understood as I hope it will be as intended simply to postpone the bankruptcy of the three Detroit automakers until the overall economic picture clarifies, rather than to reform and revitalize them. I don't think there would be any social benefit from saving the companies once the economy can absorb their disappearance or radical shrinkage without serious macroeconomic consequences. At that point, it should be sink or swim for them. To preserve them beyond that point by means of continuing federal grants would be merely to subsidize the United Auto Workers and the blue-collar workers whom the union represents, plus automobile dealers, the companies' managerial and white-collar employees, and the companies' stockholders and bondholders.

However, in concluding, Posner suggests 4 taxes on carbon emissions, congestion, highway usage (tolls) and petroleum. While, this makes theoretical sense, I'm unclear whether it's a better way to attain those goals than a simpler gas tax would be.

The striking thing from yesterday's posts is that this debate on gas taxes in the US is centered solely on efficiency grounds, and revenue doesn't get discussed at all. I know that developed countries focus on direct taxes (taxing people directly rather than goods they purchase), but this was still astonishing: the entire debate about gas taxes in Pakistan revolve around the need to fill government (officials') coffers. No one stops to think about efficiency arguments. I wonder if there are good estimates of how much more efficient developed economies are as a result of their superior tax collection.

Addendum: These posts should really be read in conjunction with their July 2008 posts. Looking at those older posts, Becker describes a 2007 JEL paper that estimates the per-gallon negative effects of gas consumption. It finds that the total cost of these effects per gallon is $2.28, of which $1.05 is from increased congestion, $0.42 from local pollution effects, and $0.63 from the increase in accidents. While local pollution is estimated to be a reasonably large chunk of the total negative effects however, only $0.06 per gallon is attributed to global warming, although/and as Posner points out, we don't know enough about global warming to have much confidence in the numbers either way. Becker's conclusion: US Federal taxes are reasonable, local are probably too low.

Posner points out, as I commented above, that gas taxes are oft-used for revenue, not efficiency. He also details why taxes on emissions, congestion etc are more efficient, although I'd repeat that the costs of imposing more complex taxes aren't accounted for. Posner points out: "the case for higher gasoline taxes should rest primarily on the efficiency of such taxes as revenue-raising devices."

The upshot is, that in underdeveloped countries without good direct taxation mechanisms, we are likely to have to tolerate higher gas taxes even if these taxes distort our economies even more than in developed countries: that's the price of lacking good taxation abilities.

Polymath of the day: Abū ʿAlī al-Ḥasan ibn al-Ḥasan ibn al-Haytham...

2009-01-05T02:33:00.007-04:00

...or Alhazen.

The BBC:

Isaac Newton is, as most will agree, the greatest physicist of all time.
At the very least, he is the undisputed father of modern optics, or so we are told at school where our textbooks abound with his famous experiments with lenses and prisms, his study of the nature of light and its reflection, and the refraction and decomposition of light into the colours of the rainbow.
Yet, the truth is rather greyer; and I feel it important to point out that, certainly in the field of optics, Newton himself stood on the shoulders of a giant who lived 700 years earlier.
For, without doubt, another great physicist, who is worthy of ranking up alongside Newton, is an Iraqi scientist born in AD 965 who went by the name of al-Hassan Ibn al-Haytham.

Most people in the West will never have even heard of him.
As a physicist myself, I am quite in awe of this man's contribution to my field, but I was fortunate enough to have recently been given the opportunity to dig a little into his life and work through my recent filming of a three-part BBC Four series on medieval Islamic scientists.

A list of al-Haytham's achievements from Wikipedia:

Ibn al-Haytham is regarded as the "father of modern optics"^[10] for his influential Book of Optics (written while he was under house arrest), which correctly explained and proved the modern intromission theory of vision. He is also recognized so for his experiments on optics, including experiments on lenses, mirrors, refraction, reflection, and the dispersion of light into its constituent colours.^[11] He studied binocular vision and the Moon illusion, described the finite speed^[12]^[13] of light, and argued that it is made of particles^[14] travelling in straight lines.^[13]^[15]

Due to his formulation of a modern quantitative and empirical approach to physics and science, he is considered the pioneer of the modern scientific method ^[16]^[17] and the originator of the experimental nature of physics^[18] and science.^[19] Author Bradley Steffens describes him as the "first scientist".^[20]

He is also considered by A. I. Sabra to be the founder of experimental psychology^[21] for his approach to visual perception and optical illusions,^[22] and a pioneer of the philosophical field of phenomenology or the study of consciousness from a first-person perspective. His Book of Optics has been ranked with Isaac Newton's Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica as one of the most influential books in the history of physics,^[23] for starting a revolution in optics^[24] and visual perception.^[25]
Ibn al-Haytham's achievements include many advances in physics and mathematics. He gave the first clear description^[26] and correct analysis^[27] of the camera obscura. He enunciated Fermat's principle of least time and the concept of inertia (Newton's first law of motion),^[28] and developed the concept of momentum.^[29] He described the attraction between masses and was aware of the magnitude of acceleration due to gravity at-a-distance.^[30] He stated that the heavenly bodies were accountable to the laws of physics and also presented a critique and reform of Ptolemaic astronomy. He was the first to state Wilson's theorem in number theory, and he formulated the Lambert quadrilateral^[31] and a concept similar to Playfair's axiom^[32] now used in non-Euclidean geometry. Moreover, he formulated and solved Alhazen's problem geometrically using early ideas related to calculus and mathematical induction.^[33] In his optical research, he laid the foundations for the later development of telescopic astronomy,^[34] as well as for the microscope and the use of optical aids in Renaissance art.^[35]

Wow. Quite a man. Funny how we Muslims have given up on role models such as these. Interesting also to note that so many of these famous advancements in science by a Muslim scientist had to pass to Western scientists before they could be appreciated and applied, and that his name is increasingly obscured in history while the names of those who dusted off his theories and claimed them (or re-discovered them independently centuries later) continue to be linked to these important developments.

Gaza Update, and two questions

2009-01-03T20:19:00.005-04:00

Israel has launched a ground offensive into Gaza, ostensibly to halt rocket launches from there. The operation has been protested by a crowd estimated between 12,000 and 50,000 in London for being disproportionate and aggressive. International organizations have warned of a humanitarian crisis (emphases mine):

A leading international charity, Oxfam, which has a programme in Gaza, warned the situation "is getting worse by the day", with clean water, fuel and food in short supply.
It said hospitals were overwhelmed with casualties, and reported that raw sewage was pouring into the streets in some areas.
Israel tightened its control of what gets in and out of the crowded coastal Strip after Hamas, the elected power, seized control of the area from rival Fatah forces 18 months ago.
Since then, the UN says there has been a significant deterioration in infrastructure and basic services, with 80% of the 1.4m population unable to support themselves.

Here are current events from the crisis in pictures.

The Palestinians have responded to an 18 month clampdown that has left them without essential sustenance by firing rockets at Israel. The first question the thinking observer must ask is: facing a situation where the life is slowly being choked out of you, is it unreasonable to retaliate however you can? Can the Palestinians be blamed for violence under the duress of a siege that has been starving and impoverishing them for a year and a half?

Then, Israel has 'responded' by attacking and killing 400, at least 25% of whom were civilians, and has now entered Gaza. The second question to be asked is: ignoring the issue of why the Palestinians were firing their rockets, let us assume for the sake of argument that they were guilty of blind aggression and Israel needed to respond. Is there no requirement of some semblance of proportionality in the 'response'? Can a just person's conscience acquiesce to punishment 10 times greater in magnitude than the alleged crime?

As an aside, and following on from my last post, Israel has kept journalists out of Gaza despite their Supreme Court allowing limited numbers of reporters access. Read into that what you will.

Shooting the messenger

2009-01-03T19:15:00.004-04:00

The Christian Science Monitor reports on the challenges of being a Pakistani journalist.

Journalists face threats not only from covering the fighting in the North, but also due to poor law and order situation endemic in Pakistan, and the fact that, given how bad the news often is, those in power don't want it published.

Here are excerpts (emphases mine). As always, you should probably just read the article:

The Committee to Protect Journalists, a New York-based group that monitors press freedom around the world, reported in December that Pakistan has become one of the most dangerous places on earth for a journalist to report in 2008.

The Paris-based Reporters Without Borders also released an annual report this week that found that Pakistan had the second-highest death toll for journalists after Iraq in 2008 – an "annus horribilis" for journalists in Pakistan, it stated. Last year, the group reported, seven reporters were killed, compared with 15 in Iraq.

"After what we'd been through with President [Pervez] Musharraf [in the past year], we hoped something positive would come out for us with a new democratic government," says Abbasi, sitting in his florescent-lit, bare-walled basement office.

Mr. Musharraf, in his final days as president in 2008, targeted the independent media in the country and forced all private TV news channels off the air for days. He also had journalists arrested en masse in November 2007, when he declared a state of emergency in the country.

"But things are still really bad," says Abbasi, and after a pause, "maybe even worse."

In the past few months, Abbasi (whose life has now been threatened) has exposed financial dealings between the Army and religious parties in the current ruling coalition and broken news of corrupt practices by the chief justice – stories that did not win him any friends.

Journalists are "working under serious danger" while covering many conflicts, domestic and international, he continues. "The security agencies and Army are fighting militants, and no matter what we write, we risk becoming targets for one or the other side."

While local reporters are more vulnerable, foreign journalists have also faced difficulties, especially in covering the conflict in the northwestern tribal areas where the Pakistani Army is battling Taliban militants.

A few journalists who covered the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks have also received threats from militants and security agencies to remain silent on the issue.

The new government and the security agencies – which are facing a host of troubles including US airstrikes on its territory, a crippled economy, and a worsening domestic militancy – may be lashing out at the media, says Rehmat.

"It's the age-old instinct of any weak government to become hostile toward independent media," he says.

A recent opinion poll conducted by the International Republican Institute, a Washington-based group funded by the US government, said that 88 percent of Pakistanis thought their country was headed in the wrong direction. Sixty-six percent of those polled disapproved of the job President Asif Ali Zardari is doing.

"The institutions in this country, the judiciary, the government, the police – they're all failing to uncover the truth so it puts extra responsibility on us to hold people accountable," says Abbasi, the journalist, adding that in the process many reporters are putting their lives on the line.

The Top 10 Stories we missed in 2008

2009-01-03T13:02:00.002-04:00

Foreign Policy:

The Surge in Afghanistan starts early
Columbian Coco production increases
The next Darfur heats up
United States helps India build a missile shield
Russia makes play for Africa
Greenhouse gas comes from solar panels
Shanghai steel fails basic safety tests
Aid to Georgia finances luxury hotel in Tiblisi
For first time, US citizen convicted of torture abroad
American company sells 'sonic blasters' to China

I'll withhold my own reactions to these stories. Read the entire article. The stories are interesting, and went entirely under my radar. Interestingly, there was something to worry me in every single one of these...

Links of the day

2009-01-02T12:17:00.002-04:00

Wars and their consequences:

The Long War Journal's State of the Jihad 2008. This summary is written from a western perspective, and so makes the usual oversight of grouping most overtly-muslim groups as hostile terrorists, or as the west likes to call them 'Islamists'. However, it does provide a good summary of where things stand in various countries, and the facts as far as I can tell are largely accurate.
50 protestors are injured in Kashmir. They were protesting against the Israeli action in Gaza, and so must have given up their right to peaceful demonstration.
9 Muslims removed from ATA flight from D.C. to Florida. They were discussing what the safest place to sit in an airplane was, and one of them said: "Wow, the jets are right next to my window." Being muslims on a plane, they were obviously allowed to say no such thing, and so ATA decided not to rebook them after FBI clearance, and not to reimburse them for lost connections either.

A non-depressing story for a change:

The BBC celebrates 200 years of Braille by publishing this account by former British Home Secretary David Blunkett, who describes some of the challenges of being blind and how Braille has allowed him independence. Many interesting facts about Braille herein, so it's worth a read. As usual, the Braille Wikipedia page is much more exhaustive.

New Layout

2009-01-01T18:05:00.007-04:00

I'm doing a little blog reorganization these days, and finally went through a bunch of templates to find something nice and simple that would be easy to organize.

The template I'm currently using 'blogy-columnas' is pleasing enough on the aesthetic front, but has an irritating bug I have had no luck with so far. As you can see at the time of writing, it leaves a gap in the first post for the links in the sidebar. Other posts are fine, but if you go back in the archives, it does it again to any post you pick up.

I don't know much HTML, but if anyone does and can tell me how to fix it, I'd be grateful.

In the meantime, there are a bunch of new and reorganized links on the left for your viewing pleasure.

Addendum: Many, many thanks to Salman Jamali for fixing this bug. Never would have found it myself!

How to select the right workers

2008-12-31T00:26:00.002-04:00

Here is a Malcolm Gladwell piece in the New Yorker about how little recruiters can predict about teachers, quarterbacks and financial advisors before they're plunged into the deep end.

Gaza Update

2008-12-30T12:25:00.001-04:00

The Israeli navy has rammed a ship carrying humanitarian aid and international observers including a CNN reporter and a former US representative in international waters.

This is such a joke!

Palestinian body count = 375 so far

Israel attack update

2008-12-29T18:19:00.002-04:00

Israel has now killed about 350 Gaza residents 'in retaliation' for rocket fire that has caused some property damage and, after the Israeli attacks began, killed 1 Israeli.

Why America Fights, Revisted

2008-12-27T14:50:00.004-04:00

In summer 2007, I watched Why we fight, a 2005 film by Americans investigating the relationship of the Industry, Washington and the Army, that is largely organized around US President Eisenhower's idea of the military-industrial complex, which he outlined in his 1961 farewell speech. Here is the full length of his discussion of that idea in the speech (emphasis mine):

A vital element in keeping the peace is our military establishment. Our arms must be mighty, ready for instant action, so that no potential aggressor may be tempted to risk his own destruction. Our military organization today bears little relation to that known by any of my predecessors in peacetime, or, indeed, by the fighting men of World War II or Korea.

Until the latest of our world conflicts, the United States had no armaments industry. American makers of plowshares could, with time and as required, make swords as well. But now we can no longer risk emergency improvisation of national defense. We have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions. Added to this, three and a half million men and women are directly engaged in the defense establishment. We annually spend on military security alone more than the net income of all United States corporations.

Now this conjunction of an immense military establishment and a large arms industry is new in the American experience. The total influence -- economic, political, even spiritual --is felt in every city, every Statehouse, every office of the Federal government. We recognize the imperative need for this development. Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications. Our toil, resources, and livelihood are all involved. So is the very structure of our society.

In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.

These are the three biggest lessons I took from this part of his speech:

A country must deter aggression by maintaining a strong army backed by industrial investment in weapons.
Such an army is inherently dangerous to the nation itself because it allows the development of strong interest groups that have direct incentives in the firing of guns and the exploding of bombs.
A country that builds up a strong army must leash it tightly by activism. The stronger an army, the heavier the moral burden on the citizenry to educate itself.

Today, I saw the film again, and it seems as fresh and relevant as ever:

But perhaps the easiest way to understand the dynamic is to watch this brilliant excerpt from the Lord of War, and think about the life of a bullet in reverse. Who does the use of ammunition benefit the most?

Finally, Why we fight? also refers to an earlier Eisenhower speech in which he talked about the opportunity cost of war. I'll end this post with an excerpt from it (emphases mine):

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.

This world in arms is not spending money alone.

It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.

The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities.

It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population. It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals.

It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement.

We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat.

We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.

So that, according to its own president, is why America fights. What about the rest of us?